{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf3a3641-b77d-4bd7-bcd9-50122649ae70", "symbol": "LSEG", "name": "London Stock Exchange Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.895, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.701, "architecture_energy": 4.092, "architecture_maturity": 15.449, "architecture_confidence": 60.484, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.26, "rotation_up": 31.91, "upward_expansion": 27.97, "deceleration": 48.33, "rotation_down": 30.65, "downward_expansion": 24.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 8758.533333, 8720.909091, 8877.648103, 8862.802888 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 8920.0, "trend_reference": 8779.657536, "distance_from_trend": 0.015985, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9594.76626, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.070326, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.980713, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.189149, "excess_performance": 0.137913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015985, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.070326, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021983, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.189149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.443521, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8791766, "relative_activity": 1.484707, "balance": 1.443521, "dry_up": 1.193492, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11999, "annualized_volatility": 0.337887, "from_high_reference": -0.120316, "from_low_reference": 0.334679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8779.657536, "fair_value_reference": 9594.76626, "structural_low": 7011.219323, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.012333, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.01312, "regime_survival": 0.35, "best_return": 0.143011, "worst_return": -0.17574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0093, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.012505, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.134522, "worst_return": -0.186086, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031631, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024633, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.152538, "worst_return": -0.240347, 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"relative_strength": -5.415362, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.9782, "energy": 9.144253, "activity_lines": [ 8741.066667, 8798.945455, 8953.655018, 8880.891571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8774.0, "volume": 5915524, "typical_volume": 6542248.05, "trend": 8794.191618, "fair_value": 9588.889558, "relative_strength": -8.163916, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.374252, "energy": 3.437669, "activity_lines": [ 8793.866667, 8776.909091, 8935.016095, 8879.375958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8398.0, "volume": 8470292, "typical_volume": 6371698.0, "trend": 8780.690967, "fair_value": 9590.577734, "relative_strength": -12.68665, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.495426, "energy": 3.116531, "activity_lines": [ 8700.4, 8693.018182, 8880.648703, 8853.815208 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8920.0, "volume": 8791766, "typical_volume": 5921547.55, "trend": 8779.657536, "fair_value": 9594.76626, "relative_strength": -6.980713, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.701231, "energy": 4.092239, "activity_lines": [ 8758.533333, 8720.909091, 8877.648103, 8862.802888 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }