{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf4383c9-c7cb-4a4c-8c37-770a19251aae", "symbol": "603389", "name": "A-Zenith Home Furnishings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.932, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.412, "architecture_energy": 60.086, "architecture_maturity": 11.109, "architecture_confidence": 69.234, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.49, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 27.64, "deceleration": 50.06, "rotation_down": 67.87, "downward_expansion": 52.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.031333, 48.996, 53.527571, 52.709312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 45.349998, "trend_reference": 51.177333, "distance_from_trend": -0.113866, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.712051, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.300623, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.937839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076939, "excess_performance": -0.033735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113866, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072563, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.300623, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.954654, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019378, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.747819, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.8328, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11488300, "relative_activity": 1.393111, "balance": 0.8328, "dry_up": 1.85401, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156017, "annualized_volatility": 0.630794, "from_high_reference": -0.368384, "from_low_reference": 1.040954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.177333, "fair_value_reference": 19.712051, "structural_low": 37.509998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.086142, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.053514, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.296552, "worst_return": -0.063032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.25791, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.21271, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.334686, "worst_return": -0.074906, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.282721, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.305665, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.598377, "worst_return": 0.033708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.349425, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.224884, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 7.129472, "worst_return": 0.138158, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.349384, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0322, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190669, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037369, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.424731, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.963621, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.179781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10275, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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58.362, 59.578546, 57.688191, 54.760753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.299999, "volume": 10518340, "typical_volume": 6694022.9, "trend": 51.177333, "fair_value": 19.015962, "relative_strength": 13.874766, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.952217, "energy": 13.376744, "activity_lines": [ 54.538667, 57.049091, 57.029381, 54.536989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.5, "volume": 19033882, "typical_volume": 7285693.0, "trend": 51.240667, "fair_value": 19.226987, "relative_strength": -9.156945, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.070727, "energy": 42.73475, "activity_lines": [ 48.588667, 53.262, 55.534476, 53.719097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.41, "volume": 20115909, "typical_volume": 8013735.25, "trend": 51.171, "fair_value": 19.457051, "relative_strength": -3.502296, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.581071, "energy": 55.861123, "activity_lines": [ 45.126667, 50.575455, 54.338667, 53.08486 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.349998, "volume": 11488300, "typical_volume": 8246506.25, "trend": 51.177333, "fair_value": 19.712051, "relative_strength": 1.937839, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.412017, "energy": 60.086237, "activity_lines": [ 44.031333, 48.996, 53.527571, 52.709312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }