{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf43e751-1cd4-495d-8ae4-8258a54a4737", "symbol": "EMQQ", "name": "EMQQ Emerging Markets Internet UCITS ETF - Accumulating", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 90.877, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.663, "architecture_energy": 50.355, "architecture_maturity": 4.16, "architecture_confidence": 71.779, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.38, "rotation_up": 71.69, "upward_expansion": 44.36, "deceleration": 25.12, "rotation_down": 14.09, "downward_expansion": 26.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.772213, 8.583945, 8.468817, 8.516414 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.9641, "trend_reference": 8.72845, "distance_from_trend": 0.026998, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.256411, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.031579, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.472305, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.061724, "excess_performance": -0.115036, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026998, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068913, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.031579, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040838, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124723, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061724, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.639053, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7731, "relative_activity": 1.979389, "balance": 0.639053, "dry_up": 1.29847, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028295, "annualized_volatility": 0.211334, "from_high_reference": -0.220031, "from_low_reference": 0.160446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.72845, "fair_value_reference": 9.256411, "structural_low": 7.7247, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.024395, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038451, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058323, "worst_return": -0.009532, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.036762, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01747, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.033111, "worst_return": -0.040414, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.066207, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.121384, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.030305, "worst_return": -0.10211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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8.361707, 8.279804, 8.348615, 8.551141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.5615, "volume": 4236, "typical_volume": 4679.65, "trend": 8.877833, "fair_value": 9.248771, "relative_strength": -13.939842, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.939671, "energy": 22.644816, "activity_lines": [ 8.461347, 8.332451, 8.362081, 8.52734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.5011, "volume": 5823, "typical_volume": 4166.5, "trend": 8.826673, "fair_value": 9.24859, "relative_strength": -14.47456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.78472, "energy": 24.252712, "activity_lines": [ 8.509447, 8.373931, 8.371899, 8.503035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.8488, "volume": 2496, "typical_volume": 3979.4, "trend": 8.778847, "fair_value": 9.251133, "relative_strength": -11.937496, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 18.411775, "energy": 34.26328, "activity_lines": [ 8.650473, 8.474158, 8.415347, 8.504462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.9641, "volume": 7731, "typical_volume": 3905.75, "trend": 8.72845, "fair_value": 9.256411, "relative_strength": -12.472305, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.663167, "energy": 50.354664, "activity_lines": [ 8.772213, 8.583945, 8.468817, 8.516414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }