{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf444519-a84d-4401-8b47-1ae34345cf1b", "symbol": "002642", "name": "Ronglian Group Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.289, "architecture_energy": 19.492, "architecture_maturity": 65.105, "architecture_confidence": 80.475, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.23, "rotation_up": 25.58, "upward_expansion": 14.2, "deceleration": 46.8, "rotation_down": 28.92, "downward_expansion": 61.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.125333, 6.942727, 7.318333, 7.545871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.31, "trend_reference": 7.864667, "distance_from_trend": -0.070526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.57391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034845, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.824779, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.138987, "excess_performance": -0.146387, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034845, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237586, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030833, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138987, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.860377, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108236503, "relative_activity": 1.102311, "balance": 0.860377, "dry_up": 1.483584, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121541, "annualized_volatility": 0.510827, "from_high_reference": -0.390833, "from_low_reference": 0.210265 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.864667, "fair_value_reference": 7.57391, "structural_low": 6.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.033749, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.047506, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.306306, "worst_return": -0.247899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076502, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.22963, "worst_return": -0.103979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.126187, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.172897, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.365706, "worst_return": 0.075041, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.145092, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.275126, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116208, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107182, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", 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7.761763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.35, "volume": 150471641, "typical_volume": 88082907.5, "trend": 7.978667, "fair_value": 7.566987, "relative_strength": -12.423275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.983187, "energy": 56.448052, "activity_lines": [ 6.819333, 7.042727, 7.493048, 7.719312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.41, "volume": 164812508, "typical_volume": 91714002.8, "trend": 7.923, "fair_value": 7.565128, "relative_strength": -23.361825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.071654, "energy": 45.776408, "activity_lines": [ 6.714667, 6.861455, 7.367952, 7.618108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.39, "volume": 159174643, "typical_volume": 95872819.9, "trend": 7.896667, "fair_value": 7.568846, "relative_strength": -9.867156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.632419, "energy": 24.947805, "activity_lines": [ 6.974667, 6.898727, 7.345048, 7.58372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.31, "volume": 108236503, "typical_volume": 98190489.6, "trend": 7.864667, "fair_value": 7.57391, "relative_strength": -14.824779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.28879, "energy": 19.492177, "activity_lines": [ 7.125333, 6.942727, 7.318333, 7.545871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }