{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf445bff-2587-4ae4-b2b6-86e27ae001ee", "symbol": "A1CR34", "name": "Amcor plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 90.071, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.261, "architecture_energy": 38.571, "architecture_maturity": 11.573, "architecture_confidence": 63.354, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.43, "rotation_up": 53.08, "upward_expansion": 43.4, "deceleration": 33.76, "rotation_down": 20.26, "downward_expansion": 20.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 217.419998, 216.585453, 209.004067, 209.603243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 217.419998, "trend_reference": 213.22729, "distance_from_trend": 0.019663, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 229.848875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054074, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.614864, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.026601, "excess_performance": 0.030448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009846, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054074, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102776, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.24531, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026601, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.333333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.333333, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02739, "annualized_volatility": 0.37912, "from_high_reference": -0.169241, "from_low_reference": 0.215274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 213.22729, "fair_value_reference": 229.848875, "structural_low": 178.906204, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.025115, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.066307, "worst_return": -0.032438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.006658, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021388, "worst_return": -0.110576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053406, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.079893, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183926, "worst_return": -0.218863, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087088, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018622, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", 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-6.520826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.331582, "energy": 44.114753, "activity_lines": [ 214.36, 205.526784, 203.426467, 208.435216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 217.419998, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 79.9, "trend": 214.043783, "fair_value": 229.494928, "relative_strength": -8.920229, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.468075, "energy": 43.06403, "activity_lines": [ 217.085332, 208.753726, 204.252306, 208.65822 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 217.419998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 75.55, "trend": 213.797173, "fair_value": 229.587506, "relative_strength": -5.86435, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.617888, "energy": 50.79943, "activity_lines": [ 217.989332, 211.418558, 205.272826, 208.87604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 217.419998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73.6, "trend": 213.65415, "fair_value": 229.658263, "relative_strength": -5.153171, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.779856, "energy": 59.510971, "activity_lines": [ 218.091998, 213.651558, 206.504263, 209.109771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 217.419998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 70.95, "trend": 213.537025, "fair_value": 229.746749, "relative_strength": -6.386615, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.263112, "energy": 44.028035, "activity_lines": [ 217.643998, 215.452726, 207.777707, 209.352729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 217.419998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 70.9, "trend": 213.22729, "fair_value": 229.848875, "relative_strength": -2.614864, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.261274, "energy": 38.571109, "activity_lines": [ 217.419998, 216.585453, 209.004067, 209.603243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }