{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf491643-2dfa-40fd-875d-23132c73f9bf", "symbol": "QQQM", "name": "Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.92, "architecture_energy": 25.333, "architecture_maturity": 66.787, "architecture_confidence": 90.918, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.29, "rotation_up": 24.94, "upward_expansion": 57.56, "deceleration": 88.29, "rotation_down": 34.23, "downward_expansion": 18.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 5011.874577, 5084.799707, 5065.063367, 4925.526686 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5092.0, "trend_reference": 4748.509896, "distance_from_trend": 0.072336, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4331.749751, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.175507, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.752232, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.178684, "excess_performance": 0.233351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072336, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038405, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.175507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067522, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049518, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.178684, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.197034, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4841, "relative_activity": 0.555247, "balance": 1.197034, "dry_up": 1.073475, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043804, "annualized_volatility": 0.221759, "from_high_reference": -0.065688, "from_low_reference": 0.226167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4748.509896, "fair_value_reference": 4331.749751, "structural_low": 4152.779785, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010561, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014707, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077378, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": 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12862, "typical_volume": 8526.7, "trend": 4733.22277, "fair_value": 4324.838386, "relative_strength": 3.179518, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.415866, "energy": 24.849074, "activity_lines": [ 5006.815234, 5093.941122, 5046.79668, 4902.379768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5092.0, "volume": 4841, "typical_volume": 8718.65, "trend": 4748.509896, "fair_value": 4331.749751, "relative_strength": 6.752232, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.920191, "energy": 25.332943, "activity_lines": [ 5011.874577, 5084.799707, 5065.063367, 4925.526686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }