{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf4b822c-e522-4a74-b4fd-168df4cd09eb", "symbol": "UGA", "name": "United States Gasoline Fund LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.421, "architecture_energy": 66.53, "architecture_maturity": 14.569, "architecture_confidence": 79.179, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.68, "rotation_up": 68.64, "upward_expansion": 84.78, "deceleration": 49.1, "rotation_down": 9.77, "downward_expansion": 13.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.3646, 112.331236, 110.844695, 106.961127 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 111.6458, "trend_reference": 98.617693, "distance_from_trend": 0.132107, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.672181, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.57977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.458391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.608034, "excess_performance": 0.482409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132107, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.178331, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.57977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.194584, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.256008, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.608034, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.655685, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 356992, "relative_activity": 1.113363, "balance": 0.655685, "dry_up": 0.816319, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075861, "annualized_volatility": 0.47679, "from_high_reference": -0.119165, "from_low_reference": 0.848465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.617693, "fair_value_reference": 70.672181, "structural_low": 67.44, "invalidation": 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18.278215, "activity_lines": [ 102.604667, 105.944455, 106.135548, 99.695581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 106.05, "volume": 181952, "typical_volume": 332745.0, "trend": 91.147167, "fair_value": 69.483122, "relative_strength": 20.682783, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.034301, "energy": 15.651147, "activity_lines": [ 103.555333, 105.314727, 106.508619, 100.749097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 119.87, "volume": 153903, "typical_volume": 336781.35, "trend": 93.083833, "fair_value": 69.806423, "relative_strength": 37.180057, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.938177, "energy": 34.996679, "activity_lines": [ 109.048667, 107.437091, 108.032452, 102.602183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 123.23, "volume": 242023, "typical_volume": 328144.65, "trend": 95.1395, "fair_value": 70.129708, "relative_strength": 40.258781, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.29036, "energy": 64.552309, "activity_lines": [ 114.68, 110.113455, 109.652524, 104.547097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 117.94, "volume": 294070, "typical_volume": 320591.1, "trend": 97.028833, "fair_value": 70.434644, "relative_strength": 31.591941, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.436475, "energy": 71.32383, "activity_lines": [ 117.152, 111.819091, 110.598452, 106.018097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.6458, "volume": 356992, "typical_volume": 320643.0, "trend": 98.617693, "fair_value": 70.672181, "relative_strength": 19.458391, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.421054, "energy": 66.530453, "activity_lines": [ 116.3646, 112.331236, 110.844695, 106.961127 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }