{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf4e1892-f766-4669-a68f-dda7fa041317", "symbol": "BMM", "name": "Bayan Mining and Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.399, "architecture_energy": 52.437, "architecture_maturity": 91.746, "architecture_confidence": 91.576, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 22.11, "upward_expansion": 8.36, "deceleration": 58.73, "rotation_down": 56.78, "downward_expansion": 81.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.059133, 0.061582, 0.070995, 0.076234 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.058, "trend_reference": 0.084867, "distance_from_trend": -0.316575, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.088263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.342872, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.034448, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.408163, "excess_performance": -0.471869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.316575, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115358, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.342872, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244577, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.510344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.363832, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.408163, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976758, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 343249, "relative_activity": 0.466525, "balance": 0.976758, "dry_up": 0.577644, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192308, "annualized_volatility": 0.913342, "from_high_reference": -0.796491, "from_low_reference": 0.16 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.084867, "fair_value_reference": 0.088263, "structural_low": 0.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.017241, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021446, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.911765, "worst_return": -0.269663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.119464, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.180429, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 5.571429, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.386364, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.320378, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 4.897436, "worst_return": -0.592593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.361111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.102564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": 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"direction": -83.013331, "energy": 89.559779, "activity_lines": [ 0.061467, 0.071273, 0.0786, 0.083568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.064, "volume": 192142, "typical_volume": 811835.55, "trend": 0.089567, "fair_value": 0.090936, "relative_strength": -43.350014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.821088, "energy": 83.211851, "activity_lines": [ 0.060333, 0.068745, 0.076757, 0.081871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.065, "volume": 60652, "typical_volume": 751140.7, "trend": 0.088533, "fair_value": 0.090135, "relative_strength": -42.297037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.910113, "energy": 79.834345, "activity_lines": [ 0.060933, 0.066873, 0.075162, 0.080286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.055, "volume": 1103977, "typical_volume": 766996.3, "trend": 0.087267, "fair_value": 0.089301, "relative_strength": -52.221213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.379579, "energy": 69.631346, "activity_lines": [ 0.0592, 0.063673, 0.072829, 0.078123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.058, "volume": 343249, "typical_volume": 735756.3, "trend": 0.084867, "fair_value": 0.088263, "relative_strength": -51.034448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.398716, "energy": 52.436871, "activity_lines": [ 0.059133, 0.061582, 0.070995, 0.076234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }