{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf4ed265-40d9-4ec0-8c4e-935ee9eae070", "symbol": "688299", "name": "Ningbo Solartron Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.202, "architecture_energy": 84.831, "architecture_maturity": 35.385, "architecture_confidence": 85.782, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 8.69, "upward_expansion": 21.01, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 79.2, "downward_expansion": 96.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.306667, 13.499818, 15.184476, 16.085441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.04, "trend_reference": 17.210333, "distance_from_trend": -0.242316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.717905, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170373, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.300873, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.370656, "excess_performance": -0.327453, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.242316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059168, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.419092, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283009, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218436, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.370656, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.652973, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33255974, "relative_activity": 1.000118, "balance": 0.652973, "dry_up": 1.013543, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140927, "annualized_volatility": 0.516369, "from_high_reference": -0.50267, "from_low_reference": 0.214153 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.210333, "fair_value_reference": 15.717905, "structural_low": 10.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.027304, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.029589, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": -0.300114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.031126, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01341, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.385488, "worst_return": -0.381487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.147427, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.138469, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.064348, "worst_return": -0.171986, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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16.965272, 17.402857, 17.766946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.01, "volume": 46992684, "typical_volume": 33944234.15, "trend": 17.878666, "fair_value": 15.810762, "relative_strength": -26.551839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.434369, "energy": 66.202065, "activity_lines": [ 15.600666, 16.326181, 17.036714, 17.510774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.29, "volume": 34478410, "typical_volume": 33827057.2, "trend": 17.716, "fair_value": 15.789821, "relative_strength": -31.012679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.819277, "energy": 82.237185, "activity_lines": [ 14.364, 15.444545, 16.535524, 17.150215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.35, "volume": 37343826, "typical_volume": 33269365.95, "trend": 17.528333, "fair_value": 15.762086, "relative_strength": -36.515485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.478319, "energy": 89.166866, "activity_lines": [ 13.078, 14.525454, 15.986095, 16.739505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.69, "volume": 29731238, "typical_volume": 32969830.1, "trend": 17.339666, "fair_value": 15.733658, "relative_strength": -34.378215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.795632, "energy": 89.487798, "activity_lines": [ 12.319333, 13.818909, 15.505571, 16.362839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.04, "volume": 33255974, "typical_volume": 33252046.1, "trend": 17.210333, "fair_value": 15.717905, "relative_strength": -28.300873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.201549, "energy": 84.831005, "activity_lines": [ 12.306667, 13.499818, 15.184476, 16.085441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }