{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf54f4b1-bfef-442f-8391-620f950a11ca", "symbol": "ABT", "name": "Abbott Laboratories", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 40.762, "architecture_energy": 72.163, "architecture_maturity": 10.294, "architecture_confidence": 66.471, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.86, "rotation_up": 74.72, "upward_expansion": 58.45, "deceleration": 17.89, "rotation_down": 14.03, "downward_expansion": 31.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.662806, 87.092199, 82.931387, 83.735353 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 92.760002, "trend_reference": 85.994012, "distance_from_trend": 0.07868, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 99.44403, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067214, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.333253, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.006507, "excess_performance": -0.16774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07868, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080447, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208691, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18875, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006507, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 21.913043, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 156, "relative_activity": 2.180294, "balance": 21.913043, "dry_up": 2.732355, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047216, "annualized_volatility": 0.282555, "from_high_reference": -0.188127, "from_low_reference": 0.323253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.994012, "fair_value_reference": 99.44403, "structural_low": 70.099998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000579, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.012248, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.084089, "worst_return": -0.064964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061951, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030972, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.069682, "worst_return": -0.085802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039745, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235418, "worst_return": -0.130444, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006239, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004096, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015841, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020618, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": 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83.242246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 81.64209, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 39.35, "trend": 87.889253, "fair_value": 99.516391, "relative_strength": -32.661523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.808554, "energy": 28.068294, "activity_lines": [ 81.138029, 79.058784, 79.601905, 82.789566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 88.099998, "volume": 466, "typical_volume": 60.5, "trend": 87.322648, "fair_value": 99.465734, "relative_strength": -25.22253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.606662, "energy": 30.284467, "activity_lines": [ 83.888659, 81.026774, 80.134385, 82.803162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.059998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 60.5, "trend": 86.879046, "fair_value": 99.432366, "relative_strength": -23.084538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 25.220391, "energy": 41.377037, "activity_lines": [ 86.774716, 83.251491, 80.995425, 83.044282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.279999, "volume": 160, "typical_volume": 68.5, "trend": 86.449355, "fair_value": 99.425049, "relative_strength": -22.091506, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.129857, "energy": 59.403499, "activity_lines": [ 88.76359, 85.182027, 81.886863, 83.328214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 92.760002, "volume": 156, "typical_volume": 71.55, "trend": 85.994012, "fair_value": 99.44403, "relative_strength": -22.333253, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.761847, "energy": 72.163145, "activity_lines": [ 90.662806, 87.092199, 82.931387, 83.735353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }