{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf55faea-0919-4fa3-a2ba-e566380ce7f5", "symbol": "688350", "name": "Jiangsu Feymer Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.308, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.433, "architecture_energy": 38.291, "architecture_maturity": 4.033, "architecture_confidence": 49.148, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.32, "rotation_up": 15.42, "upward_expansion": 20.75, "deceleration": 53.32, "rotation_down": 61.99, "downward_expansion": 48.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.775333, 29.028182, 30.62161, 30.568749 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.25, "trend_reference": 30.262312, "distance_from_trend": -0.000407, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.369203, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.646778, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.717985, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105303, "excess_performance": 0.148507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000407, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090065, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.646778, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253001, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.12718, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160791, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105303, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.798596, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14157862, "relative_activity": 0.892533, "balance": 1.798596, "dry_up": 0.87242, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148863, "annualized_volatility": 0.557928, "from_high_reference": -0.262235, "from_low_reference": 0.567894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.262312, "fair_value_reference": 18.369203, "structural_low": 21.34, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.003294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004746, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068985, "worst_return": -0.062398, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.010619, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003462, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057013, "worst_return": -0.035775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.069001, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059155, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143101, "worst_return": -0.0051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073288, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145523, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.432826, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009567, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.156405, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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"volume": 14517190, "typical_volume": 15888707.0, "trend": 30.033424, "fair_value": 18.209228, "relative_strength": -3.133942, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.333102, "energy": 40.497926, "activity_lines": [ 27.401333, 29.924127, 30.943256, 30.720585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.540001, "volume": 16259486, "typical_volume": 15720306.65, "trend": 30.110021, "fair_value": 18.278866, "relative_strength": 6.153279, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.890009, "energy": 43.932623, "activity_lines": [ 26.932, 29.130364, 30.651062, 30.559719 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.25, "volume": 14157862, "typical_volume": 15862562.8, "trend": 30.262312, "fair_value": 18.369203, "relative_strength": 12.717985, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.433312, "energy": 38.291435, "activity_lines": [ 27.775333, 29.028182, 30.62161, 30.568749 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }