{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf56232c-fbd1-411e-92a1-55ac874d01c3", "symbol": "PADV", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Pan Asia Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.849, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.082, "architecture_energy": 94.816, "architecture_maturity": 18.58, "architecture_confidence": 66.37, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 85.58, "upward_expansion": 97.64, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.12, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.958812, 45.317852, 44.687791, 44.36612 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.59, "trend_reference": 44.067395, "distance_from_trend": 0.057244, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.357074, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183777, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.226671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058383, "excess_performance": -0.024501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057244, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014479, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183777, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041612, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03301, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.368563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2876, "relative_activity": 0.648493, "balance": 9.368563, "dry_up": 1.289488, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013862, "annualized_volatility": 0.100149, "from_high_reference": -0.009462, "from_low_reference": 0.140811 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.067395, "fair_value_reference": 39.357074, "structural_low": 41.799999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.006206, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.005073, "regime_survival": 0.653846, "best_return": 0.080025, "worst_return": -0.107241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.007755, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.000254, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.082287, "worst_return": -0.059447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.017949, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003186, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.075892, "worst_return": -0.056114, "sufficient": true }, { 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44.549973, "volume": 11884, "typical_volume": 4952.8, "trend": 43.732678, "fair_value": 39.138969, "relative_strength": -6.640525, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.045389, "energy": 52.921473, "activity_lines": [ 44.380463, 44.25548, 44.011502, 43.899479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.920212, "volume": 4658, "typical_volume": 4775.65, "trend": 43.845065, "fair_value": 39.199889, "relative_strength": -3.538459, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.501981, "energy": 80.207836, "activity_lines": [ 44.896074, 44.594303, 44.219703, 44.04061 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.273823, "volume": 3457, "typical_volume": 4693.0, "trend": 43.973355, "fair_value": 39.275487, "relative_strength": -2.753111, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.40728, "energy": 91.360453, "activity_lines": [ 45.440874, 44.95505, 44.447819, 44.197305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.59, "volume": 2876, "typical_volume": 4434.9, "trend": 44.067395, "fair_value": 39.357074, "relative_strength": -3.226671, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.082338, "energy": 94.816214, "activity_lines": [ 45.958812, 45.317852, 44.687791, 44.36612 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }