{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf5d3fe3-5300-4f22-a2ee-9dadbd232c59", "symbol": "EX43", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Personal & Household Goods UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.416, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.849, "architecture_energy": 25.68, "architecture_maturity": 20.217, "architecture_confidence": 51.094, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.08, "rotation_up": 42.57, "upward_expansion": 42.65, "deceleration": 48.23, "rotation_down": 29.21, "downward_expansion": 14.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.278001, 97.214728, 95.581524, 95.152667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 97.730003, "trend_reference": 95.787, "distance_from_trend": 0.020285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 98.851474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011345, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.834552, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.043551, "excess_performance": -0.217797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011345, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072557, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024833, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.519525, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028595, "annualized_volatility": 0.198252, "from_high_reference": -0.076451, "from_low_reference": 0.113098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 95.787, "fair_value_reference": 98.851474, "structural_low": 87.800003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000647, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002616, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.07065, "worst_return": -0.080683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027315, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00152, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.050313, "worst_return": -0.062809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019235, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.005328, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113931, "worst_return": -0.046613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024172, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018832, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001173, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023557, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065172, "active": false }, { 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"modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.162926, "energy": 52.805553, "activity_lines": [ 97.294667, 95.977454, 94.107428, 94.893914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 98.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 273.55, "trend": 96.500667, "fair_value": 98.994744, "relative_strength": -15.787989, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.51208, "energy": 55.517417, "activity_lines": [ 97.852668, 96.716728, 94.598524, 95.033054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 95.879997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 183.55, "trend": 96.261333, "fair_value": 98.925769, "relative_strength": -18.907772, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.850152, "energy": 27.82676, "activity_lines": [ 97.317333, 96.788363, 94.837619, 94.993011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.040001, "volume": 306, "typical_volume": 171.4, "trend": 96.034, "fair_value": 98.885385, "relative_strength": -17.438034, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.89089, "energy": 24.249548, "activity_lines": [ 97.161334, 96.975091, 95.185095, 95.043247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.730003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 147.25, "trend": 95.787, "fair_value": 98.851474, "relative_strength": -18.834552, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.849302, "energy": 25.679888, "activity_lines": [ 97.278001, 97.214728, 95.581524, 95.152667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }