{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf62e613-ffcc-49d7-8f7b-98dfe8166f65", "symbol": "BSI", "name": "BE Semiconductor Industries N.V.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.339, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.126, "architecture_energy": 41.77, "architecture_maturity": 49.716, "architecture_confidence": 47.632, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.0, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 23.63, "deceleration": 71.39, "rotation_down": 66.93, "downward_expansion": 39.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 219.813334, 241.363637, 252.709401, 241.386142 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 221.300003, "trend_reference": 223.008497, "distance_from_trend": -0.007661, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 140.322109, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.577086, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.828055, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.348775, "excess_performance": 0.284135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007661, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.227611, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.577086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.481338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.118281, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.625564, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.348775, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6491, "relative_activity": 1.383728, "balance": 0.771385, "dry_up": 1.325531, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113681, "annualized_volatility": 0.648674, "from_high_reference": -0.306921, "from_low_reference": 1.105389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 223.008497, "fair_value_reference": 140.322109, "structural_low": 151.209169, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001331, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006325, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.32537, "worst_return": -0.090281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106981, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.120881, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.484625, "worst_return": -0.017102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.256074, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.193737, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.516122, "worst_return": -0.187714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.083155, "energy": 44.318435, "activity_lines": [ 276.180001, 280.085456, 261.605116, 240.766582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 229.899994, "volume": 2956, "typical_volume": 5029.6, "trend": 215.650348, "fair_value": 138.149459, "relative_strength": 26.519277, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.958875, "energy": 27.235653, "activity_lines": [ 257.279999, 271.261818, 260.720117, 241.90033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 227.600006, "volume": 5542, "typical_volume": 4533.9, "trend": 218.870626, "fair_value": 138.951071, "relative_strength": 22.547387, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.252374, "energy": 26.070155, "activity_lines": [ 243.320001, 262.578183, 259.42302, 242.671276 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 198.3, "volume": 9883, "typical_volume": 4594.25, "trend": 220.648954, "fair_value": 139.570067, "relative_strength": 3.815244, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -25.431458, "energy": 41.391575, "activity_lines": [ 224.973334, 249.19091, 254.989185, 241.344138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 221.300003, "volume": 6491, "typical_volume": 4690.95, "trend": 223.008497, "fair_value": 140.322109, "relative_strength": 11.828055, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.126191, "energy": 41.769796, "activity_lines": [ 219.813334, 241.363637, 252.709401, 241.386142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }