{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf644252-4164-4512-9c79-defdc5034b35", "symbol": "LOCT", "name": "Innovator Premium Income 15 Buffer ETF - October", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.969, "architecture_energy": 65.267, "architecture_maturity": 41.471, "architecture_confidence": 76.797, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.43, "rotation_up": 62.93, "upward_expansion": 86.66, "deceleration": 54.3, "rotation_down": 24.89, "downward_expansion": 10.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.865305, 23.839776, 23.798668, 23.721835 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.9, "trend_reference": 23.625208, "distance_from_trend": 0.011631, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.31358, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071097, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.049119, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018253, "excess_performance": -0.107372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011631, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008384, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071097, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001406, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000911, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018253, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.441803, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7099, "relative_activity": 0.393601, "balance": 1.441803, "dry_up": 0.471944, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002979, "annualized_volatility": 0.022159, "from_high_reference": -0.000836, "from_low_reference": 0.046546 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.625208, "fair_value_reference": 22.31358, "structural_low": 23.178177, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003636, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.012023, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.007726, "worst_return": -0.011062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.015457, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.050513, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.020609, "worst_return": 0.004294, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.028074, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.113129, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.032943, "worst_return": 0.023204, "sufficient": false }, { 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-5.635596, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.579837, "energy": 57.072082, "activity_lines": [ 23.818636, 23.811298, 23.760496, 23.684968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.875, "volume": 6169, "typical_volume": 18684.4, "trend": 23.610181, "fair_value": 22.302861, "relative_strength": -6.239252, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.717037, "energy": 67.262124, "activity_lines": [ 23.841966, 23.824308, 23.779636, 23.703137 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.9, "volume": 7099, "typical_volume": 18036.05, "trend": 23.625208, "fair_value": 22.31358, "relative_strength": -9.049119, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.968798, "energy": 65.266625, "activity_lines": [ 23.865305, 23.839776, 23.798668, 23.721835 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }