{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf669aa0-03ce-4eb9-bc15-1209e6385f49", "symbol": "SXLP", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Consumer Staples Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.003, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.889, "architecture_energy": 4.345, "architecture_maturity": 20.918, "architecture_confidence": 83.051, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 78.57, "rotation_up": 35.06, "upward_expansion": 34.94, "deceleration": 36.18, "rotation_down": 31.36, "downward_expansion": 19.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.01175, 45.957659, 45.937887, 45.951076 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.987499, "trend_reference": 45.958667, "distance_from_trend": 0.000627, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.17851, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.386234, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03489, "excess_performance": -0.086125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000627, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034133, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047185, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03489, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.674395, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69265, "relative_activity": 0.55915, "balance": 0.674395, "dry_up": 0.599219, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032516, "annualized_volatility": 0.156792, "from_high_reference": -0.05686, "from_low_reference": 0.135494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.958667, "fair_value_reference": 41.17851, "structural_low": 44.029999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.008436, "positive_rate": 0.722222, "directional_follow_through": 0.722222, "median_excess_return": -0.003004, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.104449, "worst_return": -0.040665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.028294, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.039498, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.110395, "worst_return": -0.023336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045595, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.015464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134642, "worst_return": -0.009304, "sufficient": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.794194, "energy": 11.257183, "activity_lines": [ 45.88175, 45.912, 45.871363, 45.822178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 45.39875, "volume": 57359, "typical_volume": 146033.8, "trend": 45.4225, "fair_value": 40.957652, "relative_strength": -2.726895, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.229616, "energy": 3.905684, "activity_lines": [ 45.73325, 45.789614, 45.817345, 45.827323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.712502, "volume": 32991, "typical_volume": 138984.85, "trend": 45.571667, "fair_value": 41.016178, "relative_strength": -0.733158, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.810821, "energy": 19.152292, "activity_lines": [ 46.028584, 45.929387, 45.896798, 45.910549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.605, "volume": 99906, "typical_volume": 130082.15, "trend": 45.69975, "fair_value": 41.065369, "relative_strength": -4.138725, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.018302, "energy": 4.980503, "activity_lines": [ 45.931501, 45.864432, 45.879286, 45.912699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.150002, "volume": 94752, "typical_volume": 129456.35, "trend": 45.842917, "fair_value": 41.121627, "relative_strength": -3.9916, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.77012, "energy": 12.801876, "activity_lines": [ 45.995001, 45.923114, 45.915947, 45.941748 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.987499, "volume": 69265, "typical_volume": 123875.45, "trend": 45.958667, "fair_value": 41.17851, "relative_strength": -4.386234, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.889104, "energy": 4.344683, "activity_lines": [ 46.01175, 45.957659, 45.937887, 45.951076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }