{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf751002-6934-4c22-b5a0-f127a972c43f", "symbol": "554", "name": "King Wan Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.724, "architecture_energy": 62.159, "architecture_maturity": 36.752, "architecture_confidence": 77.479, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.78, "rotation_up": 12.98, "upward_expansion": 10.88, "deceleration": 42.02, "rotation_down": 68.74, "downward_expansion": 84.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.046933, 0.048109, 0.049752, 0.051077 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.045, "trend_reference": 0.053533, "distance_from_trend": -0.159402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.037718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.88495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.237288, "excess_performance": -0.392123, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159402, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193066, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248299, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.278849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24247, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.237288, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.974969, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1082000, "relative_activity": 0.559117, "balance": 1.974969, "dry_up": 1.022171, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082051, "annualized_volatility": 0.324008, "from_high_reference": -0.383562, "from_low_reference": 0.097561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.053533, "fair_value_reference": 0.037718, "structural_low": 0.041, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.010539, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.15625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.015152, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004034, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.305556, "worst_return": -0.21875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097222, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.101077, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.416667, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.079639, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.242424, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.257143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.171429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.342105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034483, "active": 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.048, "volume": 2225700, "typical_volume": 1992745.0, "trend": 0.0544, "fair_value": 0.037462, "relative_strength": -21.898167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.392744, "energy": 65.804495, "activity_lines": [ 0.0478, 0.049236, 0.050562, 0.052013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.049, "volume": 400800, "typical_volume": 1987755.0, "trend": 0.0541, "fair_value": 0.037603, "relative_strength": -20.778625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.820212, "energy": 55.442287, "activity_lines": [ 0.048, 0.049018, 0.050338, 0.051665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.045, "volume": 1082000, "typical_volume": 1935195.0, "trend": 0.053533, "fair_value": 0.037718, "relative_strength": -27.88495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.723925, "energy": 62.158889, "activity_lines": [ 0.046933, 0.048109, 0.049752, 0.051077 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }