{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf7a4a5d-d834-4d23-9564-97d220264e96", "symbol": "5388", "name": "Sercomm Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.565, "architecture_energy": 20.167, "architecture_maturity": 16.075, "architecture_confidence": 63.378, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.95, "rotation_up": 45.65, "upward_expansion": 74.62, "deceleration": 57.0, "rotation_down": 20.65, "downward_expansion": 3.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.813335, 84.229092, 83.863596, 82.7991 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 79.800003, "trend_reference": 81.573406, "distance_from_trend": -0.02174, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 101.060582, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210375, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.034183, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.000269, "excess_performance": -0.441103, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02174, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210375, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026266, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.340342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076411, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000269, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.87992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45365731, "relative_activity": 1.772608, "balance": 0.87992, "dry_up": 1.161033, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107384, "annualized_volatility": 0.445697, "from_high_reference": -0.230634, "from_low_reference": 0.099094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.573406, "fair_value_reference": 101.060582, "structural_low": 72.605268, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.008578, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016972, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.148148, "worst_return": -0.166327, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013382, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.102209, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.195025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.098409, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011269, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259095, "worst_return": -0.173134, 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"2026-07-31", "close": 82.300003, "volume": 34142145, "typical_volume": 23252222.8, "trend": 80.97528, "fair_value": 101.287922, "relative_strength": -30.220974, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.534573, "energy": 24.28963, "activity_lines": [ 84.466667, 83.838181, 83.266488, 82.232983 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 91.400002, "volume": 21176095, "typical_volume": 23863707.0, "trend": 81.449905, "fair_value": 101.231679, "relative_strength": -23.089608, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.414511, "energy": 42.963157, "activity_lines": [ 86.900001, 85.130909, 84.152479, 82.905545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 79.800003, "volume": 45365731, "typical_volume": 25592651.45, "trend": 81.573406, "fair_value": 101.060582, "relative_strength": -34.034183, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.564741, "energy": 20.167248, "activity_lines": [ 84.813335, 84.229092, 83.863596, 82.7991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }