{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf7fffc0-3619-4a83-905b-b538fabc7e44", "symbol": "ARX", "name": "ARC Resources Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.393, "architecture_energy": 86.968, "architecture_maturity": 17.123, "architecture_confidence": 87.074, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.97, "rotation_up": 76.1, "upward_expansion": 95.29, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 9.55, "downward_expansion": 21.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.684667, 31.836646, 31.056118, 30.059273 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.490002, "trend_reference": 28.523999, "distance_from_trend": 0.139041, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.554997, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323152, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.007497, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.433293, "excess_performance": 0.312871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139041, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084094, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323152, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022782, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070075, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047259, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.433293, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.478894, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8655400, "relative_activity": 0.45133, "balance": 3.478894, "dry_up": 0.717385, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0324, "annualized_volatility": 0.375514, "from_high_reference": -0.031883, "from_low_reference": 0.547875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.523999, "fair_value_reference": 24.554997, "structural_low": 22.638297, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.018155, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": 0.00657, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.125095, "worst_return": -0.178762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.008528, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.027081, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.323038, "worst_return": -0.185447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.080958, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.073061, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.229374, "worst_return": -0.082621, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 72.075517, "activity_lines": [ 31.662028, 31.1537, 30.443869, 29.424332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.529999, "volume": 14454300, "typical_volume": 20123955.0, "trend": 28.217784, "fair_value": 24.469675, "relative_strength": 13.889038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.091873, "energy": 93.528562, "activity_lines": [ 32.483333, 31.61083, 30.814173, 29.783646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.490002, "volume": 8655400, "typical_volume": 19177530.0, "trend": 28.523999, "fair_value": 24.554997, "relative_strength": 7.007497, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.392556, "energy": 86.967609, "activity_lines": [ 32.684667, 31.836646, 31.056118, 30.059273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }