{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf80a789-ede7-44a7-bd5c-61d2f300a3a9", "symbol": "MATH", "name": "Metalpha Technology Holding Limited", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.951, "architecture_energy": 37.431, "architecture_maturity": 92.918, "architecture_confidence": 95.396, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.89, "rotation_up": 21.23, "upward_expansion": 3.73, "deceleration": 49.81, "rotation_down": 52.16, "downward_expansion": 77.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.90312, 0.925205, 0.967758, 1.026755 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.8931, "trend_reference": 1.177323, "distance_from_trend": -0.241415, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.766149, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.494324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.747654, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.352826, "excess_performance": -0.54028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241415, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.323071, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.494324, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027146, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.607477, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081804, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.352826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.622666, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113713, "relative_activity": 0.332528, "balance": 0.622666, "dry_up": 0.460198, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.202217, "annualized_volatility": 0.778114, "from_high_reference": -0.782171, "from_low_reference": 0.116375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.177323, "fair_value_reference": 1.766149, "structural_low": 0.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.056738, "positive_rate": 0.354839, "directional_follow_through": 0.612903, "median_excess_return": -0.024284, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.545455, "worst_return": -0.432099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.094203, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.019399, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.988476, "worst_return": -0.539033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.134752, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.109831, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.766355, "worst_return": -0.598513, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.326733, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197368, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.424848, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", 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"volume": 117674, "typical_volume": 334551.05, "trend": 1.273887, "fair_value": 1.771578, "relative_strength": -63.327771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.39981, "energy": 44.924764, "activity_lines": [ 0.901513, 0.940467, 0.987716, 1.069293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.95, "volume": 282490, "typical_volume": 343497.0, "trend": 1.228553, "fair_value": 1.769014, "relative_strength": -57.155361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.239201, "energy": 36.066527, "activity_lines": [ 0.911433, 0.937009, 0.979756, 1.048397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8931, "volume": 113713, "typical_volume": 341964.8, "trend": 1.177323, "fair_value": 1.766149, "relative_strength": -60.747654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.951005, "energy": 37.430822, "activity_lines": [ 0.90312, 0.925205, 0.967758, 1.026755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }