{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf849211-5a1b-4f40-8bcc-9c4026e38176", "symbol": "AFN", "name": "Ag Growth International Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.504, "architecture_energy": 89.863, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.128, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.79, "rotation_up": 8.7, "upward_expansion": 21.08, "deceleration": 37.3, "rotation_down": 82.62, "downward_expansion": 96.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.478666, 17.959636, 19.503238, 20.566172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.18, "trend_reference": 22.634, "distance_from_trend": -0.329328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.848028, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.628379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -49.613896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.488027, "excess_performance": -0.608448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.329328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061718, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.628379, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174498, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.496139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150682, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.488027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.629804, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 813600, "relative_activity": 1.382439, "balance": 0.629804, "dry_up": 1.506223, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125165, "annualized_volatility": 0.766922, "from_high_reference": -0.646533, "from_low_reference": 0.14566 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.634, "fair_value_reference": 40.848028, "structural_low": 13.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.019427, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.000287, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.310222, "worst_return": -0.119709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.119024, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.031784, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.424142, "worst_return": -0.21102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.186263, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.080574, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.504924, "worst_return": -0.016142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -40.468328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.443212, "energy": 76.274401, "activity_lines": [ 19.767333, 20.765636, 21.027667, 22.216586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.219999, "volume": 261700, "typical_volume": 474835.0, "trend": 23.561679, "fair_value": 41.577944, "relative_strength": -35.663265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.630402, "energy": 68.377029, "activity_lines": [ 19.820666, 20.498727, 20.889762, 21.994904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.33, "volume": 218700, "typical_volume": 470315.0, "trend": 23.431, "fair_value": 41.363765, "relative_strength": -37.322199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.202625, "energy": 62.622145, "activity_lines": [ 19.608666, 20.133273, 20.703286, 21.721892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.43, "volume": 2251800, "typical_volume": 567365.0, "trend": 23.092667, "fair_value": 41.116716, "relative_strength": -55.103547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.332312, "energy": 85.07336, "activity_lines": [ 17.533333, 18.801818, 19.991619, 21.076667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.18, "volume": 813600, "typical_volume": 588525.0, "trend": 22.634, "fair_value": 40.848028, "relative_strength": -49.613896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.504266, "energy": 89.863417, "activity_lines": [ 16.478666, 17.959636, 19.503238, 20.566172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }