{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf866bf6-4c27-49b6-8c20-fef9560546f7", "symbol": "SURG", "name": "Surgepays Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.408, "architecture_energy": 77.367, "architecture_maturity": 96.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.724, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.69, "rotation_up": 16.3, "upward_expansion": 18.43, "deceleration": 37.69, "rotation_down": 66.77, "downward_expansion": 91.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.266893, 0.324735, 0.408348, 0.499672 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.2895, "trend_reference": 0.666637, "distance_from_trend": -0.56573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.780315, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.895875, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -82.040007, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.707753, "excess_performance": -0.895207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.56573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.425719, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.895875, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.8204, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047865, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.707753, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.178792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 307174703, "relative_activity": 10.040293, "balance": 15.178792, "dry_up": 2.624675, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.454999, "annualized_volatility": 1.274329, "from_high_reference": -0.907803, "from_low_reference": 0.431751 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.666637, "fair_value_reference": 2.780315, "structural_low": 0.2022, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.053031, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.019793, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.761682, "worst_return": -0.61948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.08125, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.154478, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.129534, "worst_return": -0.700775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.165605, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.377985, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.398964, "worst_return": -0.732979, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.531746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.196721, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.260563, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.429185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033088, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.3131, "volume": 5048448, "typical_volume": 14863066.05, "trend": 0.819353, "fair_value": 2.881094, "relative_strength": -81.997067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.194609, "energy": 53.953838, "activity_lines": [ 0.38556, 0.418736, 0.492646, 0.600568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.241, "volume": 4240617, "typical_volume": 15048832.6, "trend": 0.771387, "fair_value": 2.844369, "relative_strength": -85.371568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.035738, "energy": 59.351106, "activity_lines": [ 0.33182, 0.380596, 0.46098, 0.563255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.218, "volume": 4735543, "typical_volume": 15260262.9, "trend": 0.721653, "fair_value": 2.811536, "relative_strength": -86.340761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.269878, "energy": 85.212275, "activity_lines": [ 0.282373, 0.343584, 0.429711, 0.527552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2895, "volume": 307174703, "typical_volume": 30594198.5, "trend": 0.666637, "fair_value": 2.780315, "relative_strength": -82.040007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.407786, "energy": 77.366956, "activity_lines": [ 0.266893, 0.324735, 0.408348, 0.499672 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }