{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf87ef3d-cbd2-41b2-a110-7db9012b79e1", "symbol": "HL", "name": "Healthlead Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.196, "architecture_energy": 32.252, "architecture_maturity": 78.941, "architecture_confidence": 81.598, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.45, "rotation_up": 27.21, "upward_expansion": 21.18, "deceleration": 42.87, "rotation_down": 33.84, "downward_expansion": 59.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.706667, 5.681818, 5.772143, 5.94336 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.65, "trend_reference": 6.20442, "distance_from_trend": -0.089359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.077963, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.300566, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.352082, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.183765, "excess_performance": -0.37609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053345, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.300566, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027618, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263521, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000139, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.183765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.225793, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 755300, "relative_activity": 2.354206, "balance": 1.225793, "dry_up": 1.18396, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040844, "annualized_volatility": 0.190341, "from_high_reference": -0.30934, "from_low_reference": 0.080755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.20442, "fair_value_reference": 8.077963, "structural_low": 5.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.018221, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.009284, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.158228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.09347, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.159364, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.197531, "worst_return": -0.236, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071823, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.035976, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.296, "worst_return": -0.39557, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.995513, "energy": 39.229168, "activity_lines": [ 5.69, 5.687273, 5.853215, 6.056559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.8, "volume": 282000, "typical_volume": 329865.0, "trend": 6.287609, "fair_value": 8.163338, "relative_strength": -26.996042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.080296, "energy": 29.345793, "activity_lines": [ 5.743333, 5.697273, 5.830952, 6.022792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.65, "volume": 167200, "typical_volume": 322925.0, "trend": 6.243594, "fair_value": 8.122444, "relative_strength": -27.46768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.763773, "energy": 28.981849, "activity_lines": [ 5.73, 5.687273, 5.799286, 5.981656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.65, "volume": 755300, "typical_volume": 320830.0, "trend": 6.20442, "fair_value": 8.077963, "relative_strength": -26.352082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.196355, "energy": 32.251988, "activity_lines": [ 5.706667, 5.681818, 5.772143, 5.94336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }