{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf907463-5e3b-4566-9b00-6cde156c5ff5", "symbol": "00668K", "name": "Cathay DJIA ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.567, "architecture_energy": 72.205, "architecture_maturity": 71.427, "architecture_confidence": 67.147, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 62.46, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.49, "rotation_down": 26.39, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.274667, 19.175636, 18.836905, 18.524065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.690001, "trend_reference": 18.223, "distance_from_trend": 0.080503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.556026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.265748, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.686544, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.1, "excess_performance": -0.279312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080503, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031822, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.265748, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0591, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186865, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108025, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.4, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 1.333333, "balance": 3.4, "dry_up": 1.333333, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015392, "annualized_volatility": 0.124784, "from_high_reference": -0.00856, "from_low_reference": 0.238365 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.223, "fair_value_reference": 15.556026, "structural_low": 16.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.00728, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.020703, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.047695, "worst_return": -0.08626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.004106, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.077736, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.062923, "worst_return": -0.066613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044347, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.016873, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.118437, "worst_return": -0.11315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008766, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078004, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025907, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008547, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", 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17.938667, 17.642909, 17.657048, 17.628451 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 18.16, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 890.0, "trend": 17.564666, "fair_value": 15.047628, "relative_strength": -27.925739, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.19937, "energy": 68.393544, "activity_lines": [ 18.034667, 17.766364, 17.701714, 17.66929 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 18.370001, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 900.0, "trend": 17.615666, "fair_value": 15.08782, "relative_strength": -28.370344, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.171394, "energy": 76.011032, "activity_lines": [ 18.167334, 17.921455, 17.763238, 17.721247 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 18.52, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 870.0, "trend": 17.661, "fair_value": 15.128461, "relative_strength": -31.12602, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.037185, "energy": 82.890852, "activity_lines": [ 18.308, 18.079818, 17.836333, 17.779591 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 18.85, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 870.0, "trend": 17.712, "fair_value": 15.173077, "relative_strength": -29.749447, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.935934, "energy": 90.82451, "activity_lines": [ 18.524667, 18.267273, 17.936238, 17.856301 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 18.59, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 830.0, "trend": 17.761667, "fair_value": 15.215064, "relative_strength": -28.630726, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.147998, "energy": 87.254544, "activity_lines": [ 18.587333, 18.369818, 18.007143, 17.912946 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 18.83, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 800.0, "trend": 17.812667, "fair_value": 15.256923, "relative_strength": -30.591094, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.278513, "energy": 90.921066, "activity_lines": [ 18.698, 18.487091, 18.098333, 17.981871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.98, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 760.0, "trend": 17.889333, "fair_value": 15.298397, "relative_strength": -26.406193, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.253982, "energy": 91.994972, "activity_lines": [ 18.814, 18.610364, 18.2, 18.057183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 19.370001, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 720.0, "trend": 17.958, "fair_value": 15.343077, "relative_strength": -27.750074, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.401916, "energy": 95.82219, "activity_lines": [ 19.019334, 18.782, 18.333667, 18.15271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 19.139999, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 730.0, "trend": 18.014, "fair_value": 15.386346, "relative_strength": -25.603247, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.307747, "energy": 90.094068, "activity_lines": [ 19.091333, 18.887091, 18.438143, 18.228968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.209999, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 740.0, "trend": 18.061333, "fair_value": 15.43032, "relative_strength": -19.911529, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.761594, "energy": 89.712734, "activity_lines": [ 19.167333, 18.981273, 18.545381, 18.306129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.93, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 750.0, "trend": 18.109, "fair_value": 15.471923, "relative_strength": -22.162278, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.894505, "energy": 81.588781, "activity_lines": [ 19.108666, 19.004545, 18.620476, 18.362172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.08, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 750.0, "trend": 18.151667, "fair_value": 15.512436, "relative_strength": -19.86492, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.789812, "energy": 62.811226, "activity_lines": [ 19.093333, 19.041091, 18.704476, 18.424817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.690001, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 750.0, "trend": 18.223, "fair_value": 15.556026, "relative_strength": -18.686544, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.566661, "energy": 72.204786, "activity_lines": [ 19.274667, 19.175636, 18.836905, 18.524065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }