{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf92ede3-6250-4d14-a8d9-5fd65047a6bf", "symbol": "OPLN", "name": "OPENLANE, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.015, "architecture_energy": 29.421, "architecture_maturity": 91.435, "architecture_confidence": 89.301, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.9, "rotation_up": 31.78, "upward_expansion": 64.24, "deceleration": 88.17, "rotation_down": 27.32, "downward_expansion": 16.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.714, 39.249273, 37.930762, 35.924774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.98, "trend_reference": 33.536333, "distance_from_trend": 0.102685, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.400705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.650841, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.426735, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.256541, "excess_performance": 0.130916, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102685, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127272, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.650841, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.064267, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.256541, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.960197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6031797, "relative_activity": 1.319958, "balance": 0.960197, "dry_up": 0.970669, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08078, "annualized_volatility": 0.42191, "from_high_reference": -0.137995, "from_low_reference": 0.520559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.536333, "fair_value_reference": 22.400705, "structural_low": 25.81, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.002743, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.003652, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.209908, "worst_return": -0.155722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.011772, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.009109, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.262623, "worst_return": -0.125484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039414, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.087372, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.389935, "worst_return": -0.329464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.944372, "energy": 64.999435, "activity_lines": [ 40.301333, 39.084727, 36.282905, 34.371226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.46, "volume": 4114735, "typical_volume": 4615761.6, "trend": 32.708, "fair_value": 21.950192, "relative_strength": 19.725069, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.128712, "energy": 58.61222, "activity_lines": [ 40.168667, 39.312727, 36.829762, 34.826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.32, "volume": 4074767, "typical_volume": 4592420.05, "trend": 32.984667, "fair_value": 22.103526, "relative_strength": 19.290684, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.599303, "energy": 49.149703, "activity_lines": [ 39.880667, 39.486727, 37.311143, 35.252581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.76, "volume": 3521326, "typical_volume": 4557925.15, "trend": 33.336333, "fair_value": 22.259487, "relative_strength": 18.61918, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.906938, "energy": 39.596266, "activity_lines": [ 39.656, 39.660364, 37.782095, 35.689699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.98, "volume": 6031797, "typical_volume": 4569689.35, "trend": 33.536333, "fair_value": 22.400705, "relative_strength": 6.426735, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.014899, "energy": 29.421185, "activity_lines": [ 38.714, 39.249273, 37.930762, 35.924774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }