{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf97c7db-2502-4d0a-9e49-ca0a6cf0428a", "symbol": "PINE4", "name": "Banco Pine S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 70.131, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.272, "architecture_energy": 25.855, "architecture_maturity": 27.179, "architecture_confidence": 47.68, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.66, "rotation_up": 20.18, "upward_expansion": 13.26, "deceleration": 62.93, "rotation_down": 45.52, "downward_expansion": 65.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.405752, 12.340635, 12.910654, 13.022306 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.92, "trend_reference": 13.138088, "distance_from_trend": -0.092714, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.473671, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.841305, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.734662, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.158036, "excess_performance": -0.100988, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032698, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.841305, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.553913, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017347, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208784, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.158036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.66501, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4902400, "relative_activity": 1.076583, "balance": 1.66501, "dry_up": 1.093883, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113124, "annualized_volatility": 0.556684, "from_high_reference": -0.262832, "from_low_reference": 1.10058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.138088, "fair_value_reference": 6.473671, "structural_low": 10.549021, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.077605, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027603, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.134549, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.112073, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.67647, "worst_return": -0.315436, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.051803, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067899, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.147651, "worst_return": -0.251256, "sufficient": false 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"relative_strength": 4.324718, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.772363, "energy": 47.202022, "activity_lines": [ 12.200189, 12.714785, 13.234491, 13.228777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.37, "volume": 5350300, "typical_volume": 4866440.0, "trend": 13.14924, "fair_value": 6.287157, "relative_strength": -1.110655, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.072551, "energy": 69.220929, "activity_lines": [ 11.867384, 12.397475, 13.058667, 13.113183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.09, "volume": 6093600, "typical_volume": 4515150.0, "trend": 13.165801, "fair_value": 6.352729, "relative_strength": 12.583144, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.148652, "energy": 38.536408, "activity_lines": [ 12.214509, 12.429801, 13.055936, 13.109361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.07, "volume": 3578400, "typical_volume": 4478505.0, "trend": 13.17356, "fair_value": 6.418638, "relative_strength": 8.950829, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.636573, "energy": 23.065411, "activity_lines": [ 12.546244, 12.477036, 13.042017, 13.103181 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.92, "volume": 4902400, "typical_volume": 4553665.0, "trend": 13.138088, "fair_value": 6.473671, "relative_strength": 1.734662, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.272314, "energy": 25.855185, "activity_lines": [ 12.405752, 12.340635, 12.910654, 13.022306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }