{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "cf9e2e5b-e27a-4b62-9be0-f3b53bcb7379",
    "symbol": "MMGR-B",
    "name": "Momentum Group AB (publ)",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 73.584,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 48.828,
    "architecture_energy": 78.29,
    "architecture_maturity": 18.667,
    "architecture_confidence": 60.451,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 14.8,
        "rotation_up": 80.73,
        "upward_expansion": 70.44,
        "deceleration": 18.0,
        "rotation_down": 16.03,
        "downward_expansion": 26.44
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        134.283637,
        126.985805,
        125.333256
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 145.199997,
    "trend_reference": 125.35207,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.158337,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 145.045167,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001067,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -6.927863,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.120322,
    "excess_performance": 0.058828,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.158337,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.059515,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.001067,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.200577,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.069279,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.229362,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.120322,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.309002,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 62277,
      "relative_activity": 0.387272,
      "balance": 3.309002,
      "dry_up": 0.763853,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.061983,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.489498,
      "from_high_reference": -0.149385,
      "from_low_reference": 0.435413
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 125.35207,
      "fair_value_reference": 145.045167,
      "structural_low": 101.155558,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.016576,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.051482,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.027559,
        "worst_return": -0.06071,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.020445,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.093365,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.074803,
        "worst_return": -0.115693,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.165134,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.02806,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.428778,
        "worst_return": -0.098511,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.046536,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.140659,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.393852,
        "worst_return": -0.300781,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.027559,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-15",
        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.003846,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.208079,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.069221,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.087167,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.059341,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.102506,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.13818,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.072165,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.00505,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
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        "return": 0.032787,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
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        "active": true
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        "fair_value": 143.222154,
        "relative_strength": -35.879537,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -74.083903,
        "energy": 39.001316,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 114.800003,
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        "typical_volume": 203232.95,
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        "fair_value": 143.412168,
        "relative_strength": -29.864073,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "energy": 38.566067,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 112814,
        "typical_volume": 204366.75,
        "trend": 136.11803,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 52.065042,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 119.0,
        "volume": 163200,
        "typical_volume": 210284.75,
        "trend": 134.618609,
        "fair_value": 143.758617,
        "relative_strength": -27.305615,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.492846,
        "energy": 55.265239,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 120.599998,
        "volume": 161553,
        "typical_volume": 214788.15,
        "trend": 133.284477,
        "fair_value": 143.836877,
        "relative_strength": -25.292627,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "energy": 37.695119,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 13924,
        "typical_volume": 196647.75,
        "trend": 132.224917,
        "fair_value": 143.823885,
        "relative_strength": -27.113181,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 111.0,
        "volume": 18283,
        "typical_volume": 193055.1,
        "trend": 130.880311,
        "fair_value": 143.843722,
        "relative_strength": -29.1626,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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        "energy": 35.227043,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 200676.75,
        "trend": 128.231827,
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        "relative_strength": -28.359996,
        "stage": 4,
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        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 41.51462,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 126.599998,
        "volume": 37838,
        "typical_volume": 197000.05,
        "trend": 127.282093,
        "fair_value": 143.86979,
        "relative_strength": -20.002314,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 18.554535,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 122.400002,
        "volume": 101512,
        "typical_volume": 190222.1,
        "trend": 126.139674,
        "fair_value": 143.968935,
        "relative_strength": -20.183999,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -26.372055,
        "energy": 13.492851,
        "activity_lines": [
          119.373333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 142.600006,
        "volume": 199308,
        "typical_volume": 195921.45,
        "trend": 125.887915,
        "fair_value": 144.185104,
        "relative_strength": -5.504809,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 36.545684,
        "energy": 32.366977,
        "activity_lines": [
          127.906669,
          122.360001,
          120.336631,
          121.734574
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 146.0,
        "volume": 145781,
        "typical_volume": 197582.8,
        "trend": 125.782417,
        "fair_value": 144.457342,
        "relative_strength": -4.288817,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 42.865504,
        "energy": 57.110707,
        "activity_lines": [
          135.466668,
          127.200001,
          122.802598,
          123.032128
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 141.800003,
        "volume": 83973,
        "typical_volume": 164264.6,
        "trend": 125.550091,
        "fair_value": 144.733814,
        "relative_strength": -7.83986,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 43.805529,
        "energy": 72.389035,
        "activity_lines": [
          139.480002,
          130.640001,
          124.781089,
          124.06552
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 145.199997,
        "volume": 62277,
        "typical_volume": 160809.4,
        "trend": 125.35207,
        "fair_value": 145.045167,
        "relative_strength": -6.927863,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 48.827575,
        "energy": 78.290101,
        "activity_lines": [
          142.586667,
          134.283637,
          126.985805,
          125.333256
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}