{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cf9f0892-1f1e-4e7b-8a34-c9dddf2b73f6", "symbol": "600361", "name": "Innovation New Material Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.447, "architecture_energy": 42.544, "architecture_maturity": 52.212, "architecture_confidence": 78.825, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.37, "rotation_up": 25.71, "upward_expansion": 10.95, "deceleration": 59.71, "rotation_down": 45.44, "downward_expansion": 72.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.654667, 3.659047, 3.864016, 4.012208 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.73, "trend_reference": 4.206778, "distance_from_trend": -0.113336, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.207679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113526, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.119253, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21308, "excess_performance": -0.169876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113336, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050135, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.113526, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121744, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648005, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 184250459, "relative_activity": 0.773465, "balance": 0.648005, "dry_up": 0.984106, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081121, "annualized_volatility": 0.353756, "from_high_reference": -0.277132, "from_low_reference": 0.113433 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.206778, "fair_value_reference": 4.207679, "structural_low": 3.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.019867, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.005172, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.597102, "worst_return": -0.172917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.000925, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008898, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.515942, "worst_return": -0.120083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.068489, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.064055, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.849276, "worst_return": -0.139399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -15.058094, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.964387, "energy": 84.758259, "activity_lines": [ 3.54237, 3.747116, 3.976921, 4.119627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.6, "volume": 257145101, "typical_volume": 260208170.75, "trend": 4.244778, "fair_value": 4.221784, "relative_strength": -12.966947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.737862, "energy": 77.294747, "activity_lines": [ 3.5388, 3.691122, 3.925381, 4.076631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.74, "volume": 257651443, "typical_volume": 247820101.3, "trend": 4.223778, "fair_value": 4.215256, "relative_strength": -9.699795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.426701, "energy": 52.834825, "activity_lines": [ 3.605333, 3.670522, 3.892556, 4.044064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.73, "volume": 184250459, "typical_volume": 238214425.6, "trend": 4.206778, "fair_value": 4.207679, "relative_strength": -12.119253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.447329, "energy": 42.543524, "activity_lines": [ 3.654667, 3.659047, 3.864016, 4.012208 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }