{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfac5a93-d46f-4bdf-969a-b01db6c3f420", "symbol": "8424", "name": "Wellpool Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.926, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.537, "architecture_energy": 12.226, "architecture_maturity": 19.432, "architecture_confidence": 62.709, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.9, "rotation_up": 21.23, "upward_expansion": 13.34, "deceleration": 33.47, "rotation_down": 37.32, "downward_expansion": 61.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.760001, 68.783637, 68.753279, 68.850813 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 68.800003, "trend_reference": 68.881925, "distance_from_trend": -0.001189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.933158, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.093223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.019793, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007522, "excess_performance": -0.43385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001255, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.093223, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008892, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040729, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007522, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.794501, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 89003, "relative_activity": 0.796235, "balance": 0.794501, "dry_up": 0.752216, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015205, "annualized_volatility": 0.066047, "from_high_reference": -0.035882, "from_low_reference": 0.050518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.881925, "fair_value_reference": 62.933158, "structural_low": 67.075238, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.009436, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.007618, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.040541, "worst_return": -0.053571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016543, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.073984, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.018759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008658, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.073727, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.084313, "worst_return": 0.003033, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.058385, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015089, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": 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68.913437, 68.920452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 68.900002, "volume": 37250, "typical_volume": 114859.45, "trend": 68.894174, "fair_value": 62.532945, "relative_strength": -32.348281, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.852927, "energy": 8.244405, "activity_lines": [ 69.013334, 68.797483, 68.896841, 68.920745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 68.400002, "volume": 75500, "typical_volume": 112934.35, "trend": 68.882436, "fair_value": 62.61164, "relative_strength": -27.755692, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.113969, "energy": 3.815881, "activity_lines": [ 68.773335, 68.749139, 68.828817, 68.888863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 68.5, "volume": 61300, "typical_volume": 108588.65, "trend": 68.892664, "fair_value": 62.689912, "relative_strength": -28.442139, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.473016, "energy": 20.507234, "activity_lines": [ 68.653334, 68.730459, 68.77776, 68.86419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.400002, "volume": 101000, "typical_volume": 109078.65, "trend": 68.843663, "fair_value": 62.768607, "relative_strength": -26.807206, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.54319, "energy": 26.60424, "activity_lines": [ 68.533335, 68.68802, 68.726809, 68.832405 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 69.199997, "volume": 85027, "typical_volume": 109729.6, "trend": 68.871013, "fair_value": 62.850834, "relative_strength": -26.936229, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.601635, "energy": 13.397583, "activity_lines": [ 68.72, 68.783885, 68.758605, 68.855395 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 68.800003, "volume": 89003, "typical_volume": 111779.75, "trend": 68.881925, "fair_value": 62.933158, "relative_strength": -29.019793, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.537022, "energy": 12.225658, "activity_lines": [ 68.760001, 68.783637, 68.753279, 68.850813 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }