{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfb1d17b-b207-450c-b747-25bd7c7334f3", "symbol": "MULT", "name": "Multitude AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.954, "architecture_energy": 42.528, "architecture_maturity": 19.036, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.42, "rotation_up": 19.94, "upward_expansion": 6.86, "deceleration": 45.44, "rotation_down": 52.63, "downward_expansion": 80.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.264, 5.307273, 5.460434, 5.543573 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.22, "trend_reference": 5.634398, "distance_from_trend": -0.073548, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.84462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077484, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.479867, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116968, "excess_performance": -0.181608, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073548, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024782, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116968, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.417919, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21823, "relative_activity": 0.524682, "balance": 0.417919, "dry_up": 0.850189, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064545, "annualized_volatility": 0.273228, "from_high_reference": -0.242947, "from_low_reference": 0.061289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.634398, "fair_value_reference": 4.84462, "structural_low": 4.918548, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.019169, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.016274, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.422535, "worst_return": -0.172737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008197, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.039689, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.549296, "worst_return": -0.24359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.029278, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009327, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.419355, "worst_return": -0.410256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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5.574384, 5.632586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.24, "volume": 47713, "typical_volume": 46064.8, "trend": 5.683, "fair_value": 4.811485, "relative_strength": -13.860419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.162934, "energy": 42.47396, "activity_lines": [ 5.336, 5.376, 5.53646, 5.603432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2, "volume": 45570, "typical_volume": 44181.05, "trend": 5.664801, "fair_value": 4.828463, "relative_strength": -15.904145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.82664, "energy": 40.784387, "activity_lines": [ 5.293333, 5.334909, 5.496304, 5.57227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.22, "volume": 21823, "typical_volume": 41592.8, "trend": 5.634398, "fair_value": 4.84462, "relative_strength": -17.479867, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.954431, "energy": 42.527785, "activity_lines": [ 5.264, 5.307273, 5.460434, 5.543573 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }