{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfb5a980-9503-4bec-a99b-9093f94f5779", "symbol": "SCATC", "name": "Scatec ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.389, "architecture_energy": 83.125, "architecture_maturity": 38.737, "architecture_confidence": 93.64, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.01, "rotation_up": 27.6, "upward_expansion": 20.99, "deceleration": 37.54, "rotation_down": 56.37, "downward_expansion": 94.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.916665, 95.205454, 100.130476, 105.018924 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 92.949997, "trend_reference": 110.268333, "distance_from_trend": -0.157056, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 88.184615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054039, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.789047, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.186789, "excess_performance": -0.311783, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157056, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019692, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054039, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.22789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068803, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.186789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.875945, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1522763, "relative_activity": 0.666313, "balance": 0.875945, "dry_up": 0.609949, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047379, "annualized_volatility": 0.382915, "from_high_reference": -0.324491, "from_low_reference": 0.027072 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.268333, "fair_value_reference": 88.184615, "structural_low": 90.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.028909, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.003873, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.27305, "worst_return": -0.195873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.015379, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.069626, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.340463, "worst_return": -0.378326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.108244, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.113523, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.361854, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 91.949997, "volume": 1931524, "typical_volume": 2278760.25, "trend": 110.8, "fair_value": 88.110577, "relative_strength": -23.753001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.92619, "energy": 70.737461, "activity_lines": [ 94.86, 96.050909, 101.547143, 106.170538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 92.949997, "volume": 1522763, "typical_volume": 2285357.7, "trend": 110.268333, "fair_value": 88.184615, "relative_strength": -22.789047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.388666, "energy": 83.124638, "activity_lines": [ 93.916665, 95.205454, 100.130476, 105.018924 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }