{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfbe7d2b-6dcd-41a4-a5c3-9333c8beb38b", "symbol": "000755", "name": "Shanxi Hi-speed Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.571, "architecture_energy": 20.996, "architecture_maturity": 81.137, "architecture_confidence": 76.643, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.28, "rotation_up": 26.55, "upward_expansion": 14.82, "deceleration": 46.73, "rotation_down": 25.69, "downward_expansion": 60.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.617333, 4.562682, 4.659843, 4.794857 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.6, "trend_reference": 4.955139, "distance_from_trend": -0.071671, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.678174, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.01671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.597917, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136961, "excess_performance": -0.14436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071671, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049255, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.01671, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117914, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136961, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.002283, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24274610, "relative_activity": 0.913595, "balance": 1.002283, "dry_up": 0.91727, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063775, "annualized_volatility": 0.239218, "from_high_reference": -0.292308, "from_low_reference": 0.071429 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.955139, "fair_value_reference": 4.678174, "structural_low": 4.293333, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.007516, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03322, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.341584, "worst_return": -0.150198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020354, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.062588, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.685644, "worst_return": -0.066132, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.091919, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067471, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.566832, "worst_return": -0.078891, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.581747, "energy": 32.694528, "activity_lines": [ 4.546667, 4.542591, 4.693835, 4.836402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.71, "volume": 19342750, "typical_volume": 26926759.8, "trend": 4.969139, "fair_value": 4.679163, "relative_strength": -5.259103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.911788, "energy": 24.888539, "activity_lines": [ 4.614, 4.561023, 4.680006, 4.818673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.6, "volume": 24274610, "typical_volume": 26570432.5, "trend": 4.955139, "fair_value": 4.678174, "relative_strength": -11.597917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.57097, "energy": 20.996318, "activity_lines": [ 4.617333, 4.562682, 4.659843, 4.794857 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }