{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfbec9d9-3697-4961-8589-0cd3bee8660f", "symbol": "FFM", "name": "FIREFLY METALS LTD", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.932, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.661, "architecture_energy": 36.717, "architecture_maturity": 8.315, "architecture_confidence": 83.001, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.42, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 8.48, "deceleration": 41.03, "rotation_down": 55.18, "downward_expansion": 79.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.752667, 1.773636, 1.845571, 1.851419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.92, "trend_reference": 1.866, "distance_from_trend": 0.028939, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.381105, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.390192, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.48812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037838, "excess_performance": -0.082583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.028939, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012846, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.390192, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113373, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014881, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182464, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037838, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.742905, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 570100, "relative_activity": 0.787295, "balance": 0.742905, "dry_up": 0.817262, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102965, "annualized_volatility": 0.65337, "from_high_reference": -0.157895, "from_low_reference": 0.939394 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.866, "fair_value_reference": 1.381105, "structural_low": 1.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034682, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185185, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 0.9, "volume": 114100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 0.9, "volume": 115000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.335686, "energy": 58.829989, "activity_lines": [ 1.705333, 1.786545, 1.854762, 1.860258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 679700, "typical_volume": 742355.0, "trend": 1.865667, "fair_value": 1.374765, "relative_strength": -7.701965, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.388616, "energy": 61.361539, "activity_lines": [ 1.687333, 1.756, 1.838905, 1.847914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.92, "volume": 570100, "typical_volume": 724125.0, "trend": 1.866, "fair_value": 1.381105, "relative_strength": 1.48812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.661364, "energy": 36.71703, "activity_lines": [ 1.752667, 1.773636, 1.845571, 1.851419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }