{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "cfc17208-5cf3-4596-b550-b41aa74d43ce",
    "symbol": "TRB",
    "name": "Tribal Group plc",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 48.441,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 27.636,
    "architecture_energy": 28.762,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.395,
    "architecture_confidence": 46.712,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 35.78,
        "rotation_up": 50.14,
        "upward_expansion": 50.68,
        "deceleration": 33.14,
        "rotation_down": 24.87,
        "downward_expansion": 11.34
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.630667,
        0.623745,
        0.603181,
        0.596619
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 0.63,
    "trend_reference": 0.604353,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.042437,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.508892,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237984,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.633048,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.092691,
    "excess_performance": -0.143926,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042437,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008689,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.237984,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.157364,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04633,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061149,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.092691,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.613378,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1312024,
      "relative_activity": 1.93232,
      "balance": 1.613378,
      "dry_up": 1.339356,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.079762,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.404841,
      "from_high_reference": -0.132538,
      "from_low_reference": 0.391029
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.604353,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.508892,
      "structural_low": 0.46,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.066668,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.059131,
        "regime_survival": 0.4,
        "best_return": 0.369862,
        "worst_return": -0.026786,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.418994,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.410299,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.518264,
        "worst_return": 0.133333,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.037989,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.0568,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.611281,
        "worst_return": -0.061219,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.352856,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.203172,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.499008,
        "worst_return": 0.206704,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.010332,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-09-20",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.138142,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.137788,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.197826,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053658,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052943,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.215752,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.248721,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.060242,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.048455,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.093117,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "return": 0.091837,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 674284.7,
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 634769.2,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 21.076522,
        "energy": 22.407676,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.63,
        "volume": 645299,
        "typical_volume": 649862.0,
        "trend": 0.607235,
        "fair_value": 0.507378,
        "relative_strength": -4.294365,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 29.097692,
        "energy": 30.61636,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.628933,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.63,
        "volume": 1312024,
        "typical_volume": 678989.0,
        "trend": 0.604353,
        "fair_value": 0.508892,
        "relative_strength": -4.633048,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 27.63556,
        "energy": 28.762164,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}