{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfc7b09c-4334-4e08-ae30-1af42da3f77c", "symbol": "ALGEC", "name": "GECI International S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.576, "architecture_energy": 64.203, "architecture_maturity": 58.349, "architecture_confidence": 91.637, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 13.91, "upward_expansion": 13.46, "deceleration": 40.07, "rotation_down": 63.4, "downward_expansion": 84.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.812, 1.875, 1.978976, 2.078763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.9, "trend_reference": 2.246833, "distance_from_trend": -0.154365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.130178, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.393006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.332247, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.298893, "excess_performance": -0.352204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107455, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.393006, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1154, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.298893, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.538697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12109, "relative_activity": 1.704737, "balance": 0.538697, "dry_up": 1.919888, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10749, "annualized_volatility": 0.490954, "from_high_reference": -0.402516, "from_low_reference": 0.1875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.246833, "fair_value_reference": 3.130178, "structural_low": 1.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.07971, "positive_rate": 0.311111, "directional_follow_through": 0.622222, "median_excess_return": -0.099007, "regime_survival": 0.911111, "best_return": 1.168432, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.14966, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.154342, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.93, "worst_return": -0.738095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.447368, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.474417, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.144674, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.657171, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.6588, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.260009, "worst_return": -0.785714, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119898, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033848, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113342, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.348039, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137056, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005865, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078488, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009901, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.103333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086331, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.285714, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.0, "volume": 1034, "typical_volume": 8372.7, "trend": 11.2, "fair_value": 119.698718, "relative_strength": -45.530185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 2.01, "volume": 6675, "typical_volume": 5311.0, "trend": 2.3715, "fair_value": 3.282806, "relative_strength": -24.526587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.301313, "energy": 40.77406, "activity_lines": [ 2.002667, 2.039909, 2.106214, 2.214978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.9, "volume": 5972, "typical_volume": 5293.9, "trend": 2.344167, "fair_value": 3.243704, "relative_strength": -27.733521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.484234, "energy": 47.371434, "activity_lines": [ 1.967333, 2.002909, 2.078619, 2.184559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.69, "volume": 23385, "typical_volume": 6300.6, "trend": 2.310833, "fair_value": 3.203255, "relative_strength": -35.176165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.353842, "energy": 62.389893, "activity_lines": [ 1.868667, 1.936818, 2.034071, 2.142355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.7, "volume": 13083, "typical_volume": 6866.8, "trend": 2.274833, "fair_value": 3.162871, "relative_strength": -35.035699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.497424, "energy": 70.316435, "activity_lines": [ 1.799333, 1.882727, 1.995095, 2.102946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.9, "volume": 12109, "typical_volume": 7103.15, "trend": 2.246833, "fair_value": 3.130178, "relative_strength": -28.332247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.576477, "energy": 64.203266, "activity_lines": [ 1.812, 1.875, 1.978976, 2.078763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }