{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfc87184-6083-4a9a-a81e-4ac48734b32d", "symbol": "SAMTEL", "name": "Samart Telcoms Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.692, "architecture_energy": 59.029, "architecture_maturity": 69.143, "architecture_confidence": 93.126, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.29, "rotation_up": 26.89, "upward_expansion": 10.75, "deceleration": 60.43, "rotation_down": 51.37, "downward_expansion": 81.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.085333, 3.108727, 3.303714, 3.443265 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.06, "trend_reference": 3.612421, "distance_from_trend": -0.152923, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.156929, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.26388, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.09312, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2248, "excess_performance": -0.417125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152923, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063752, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.26388, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.330931, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044503, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2248, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.239299, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1113700, "relative_activity": 2.737608, "balance": 0.239299, "dry_up": 2.392611, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059326, "annualized_volatility": 0.226126, "from_high_reference": -0.438945, "from_low_reference": 0.02 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.612421, "fair_value_reference": 4.156929, "structural_low": 3.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.033668, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.044638, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.433333, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.047655, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04891, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.36882, "worst_return": -0.318298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.09309, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.230877, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.722306, "worst_return": -0.334844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.289157, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.363095, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.160087, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.267327, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056911, 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"activity_lines": [ 3.113333, 3.216364, 3.43815, 3.560707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.04, "volume": 1114100, "typical_volume": 322370.0, "trend": 3.679447, "fair_value": 4.166204, "relative_strength": -36.576781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.332888, "energy": 66.301411, "activity_lines": [ 3.094667, 3.163636, 3.38691, 3.517204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.12, "volume": 731900, "typical_volume": 353500.0, "trend": 3.646605, "fair_value": 4.161459, "relative_strength": -33.187098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.561099, "energy": 58.823142, "activity_lines": [ 3.102667, 3.137091, 3.346857, 3.48111 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.06, "volume": 1113700, "typical_volume": 406815.0, "trend": 3.612421, "fair_value": 4.156929, "relative_strength": -33.09312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.692493, "energy": 59.028522, "activity_lines": [ 3.085333, 3.108727, 3.303714, 3.443265 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }