{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfcfcd6e-cabd-4979-b81d-4753b5f14e47", "symbol": "NORTH", "name": "North Energy ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.689, "architecture_energy": 67.504, "architecture_maturity": 12.706, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.97, "rotation_up": 17.18, "upward_expansion": 15.44, "deceleration": 38.18, "rotation_down": 62.14, "downward_expansion": 88.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.284667, 2.31, 2.395994, 2.439238 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.27, "trend_reference": 2.477693, "distance_from_trend": -0.083825, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.318149, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.02077, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.845257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.115888, "excess_performance": -0.240881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083825, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.02077, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179815, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115888, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.123166, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 309774, "relative_activity": 0.490466, "balance": 0.123166, "dry_up": 0.383346, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051169, "annualized_volatility": 0.210421, "from_high_reference": -0.243333, "from_low_reference": 0.017937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.477693, "fair_value_reference": 2.318149, "structural_low": 2.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.004785, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": 0.00465, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.245833, "worst_return": -0.044527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062802, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.074468, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.288703, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050629, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009523, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205009, "worst_return": -0.034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106509, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.117871, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052045, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054687, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145333, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.633334, "energy": 61.701676, "activity_lines": [ 2.328667, 2.359818, 2.456461, 2.478921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.27, "volume": 191248, "typical_volume": 675265.2, "trend": 2.485435, "fair_value": 2.314643, "relative_strength": -20.406932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.244876, "energy": 59.500384, "activity_lines": [ 2.306667, 2.336182, 2.434633, 2.464832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.3, "volume": 194437, "typical_volume": 648429.9, "trend": 2.481272, "fair_value": 2.316685, "relative_strength": -19.176595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.371056, "energy": 57.43094, "activity_lines": [ 2.300667, 2.324, 2.41649, 2.452869 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.27, "volume": 309774, "typical_volume": 631591.15, "trend": 2.477693, "fair_value": 2.318149, "relative_strength": -19.845257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.688812, "energy": 67.503821, "activity_lines": [ 2.284667, 2.31, 2.395994, 2.439238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }