{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfd6c0cb-2046-4401-ab15-d97d8b6d25ef", "symbol": "MINEST", "name": "Minesto AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.694, "architecture_energy": 60.634, "architecture_maturity": 57.78, "architecture_confidence": 81.82, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.51, "rotation_up": 66.93, "upward_expansion": 83.66, "deceleration": 67.75, "rotation_down": 15.88, "downward_expansion": 10.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.828133, 1.720473, 1.4187, 1.230198 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.626, "trend_reference": 1.010167, "distance_from_trend": 0.609635, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.964883, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.45158, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.121979, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.765306, "excess_performance": 1.703812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.609635, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.308732, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.45158, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.283301, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.07122, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.670436, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.765306, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.179967, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2080877, "relative_activity": 0.585103, "balance": 2.179967, "dry_up": 1.248806, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.194247, "annualized_volatility": 0.960116, "from_high_reference": -0.589394, "from_low_reference": 2.239044 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.010167, "fair_value_reference": 2.964883, "structural_low": 0.502, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.0875, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.072485, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.052687, "worst_return": -0.229384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.565436, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.651581, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.551923, "worst_return": -0.645601, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.640385, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.797901, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.45, "worst_return": -0.830769, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.403614, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.346875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.174825, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.437885, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223292, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.401284, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105882, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.321839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.416376, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.25, "volume": 726722, "typical_volume": 1114029.1, "trend": 4.652488, "fair_value": 15.638806, "relative_strength": -44.77601, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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2.17, "volume": 6851533, "typical_volume": 3947058.3, "trend": 0.903067, "fair_value": 3.018895, "relative_strength": 33.633388, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.216792, "energy": 96.649547, "activity_lines": [ 1.8216, 1.517473, 1.220814, 1.068009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.03, "volume": 6011880, "typical_volume": 3992192.15, "trend": 0.947467, "fair_value": 3.004633, "relative_strength": 27.524065, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.089544, "energy": 90.013295, "activity_lines": [ 1.959467, 1.649527, 1.316124, 1.140714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.688, "volume": 2820877, "typical_volume": 3809291.5, "trend": 0.979533, "fair_value": 2.9851, "relative_strength": 8.980574, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.815899, "energy": 81.08485, "activity_lines": [ 1.9152, 1.698073, 1.372481, 1.18849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.626, "volume": 2080877, "typical_volume": 3556429.25, "trend": 1.010167, "fair_value": 2.964883, "relative_strength": 7.121979, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.694395, "energy": 60.634255, "activity_lines": [ 1.828133, 1.720473, 1.4187, 1.230198 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }