{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfdb9f7f-8950-428b-abb8-57375036e095", "symbol": "000965", "name": "Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.023, "architecture_energy": 44.735, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.592, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 11.84, "deceleration": 60.77, "rotation_down": 43.68, "downward_expansion": 73.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.093333, 3.093794, 3.230551, 3.376567 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.12, "trend_reference": 3.579426, "distance_from_trend": -0.128352, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.486129, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.105024, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.745553, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.223881, "excess_performance": -0.23128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128352, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089929, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.105024, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161218, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030208, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223881, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.437522, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70366562, "relative_activity": 0.860399, "balance": 0.437522, "dry_up": 0.817636, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067442, "annualized_volatility": 0.280097, "from_high_reference": -0.360656, "from_low_reference": 0.075862 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.579426, "fair_value_reference": 3.486129, "structural_low": 2.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.034361, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.008042, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.484375, "worst_return": -0.128866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.047809, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.031479, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.189923, "worst_return": -0.193299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.120733, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.040051, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.215255, "worst_return": -0.237975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-69.35693, "energy": 86.346503, "activity_lines": [ 3.068648, 3.18887, 3.374366, 3.521215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.08, "volume": 68643341, "typical_volume": 90198222.25, "trend": 3.663426, "fair_value": 3.502946, "relative_strength": -22.960006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.208601, "energy": 81.621002, "activity_lines": [ 3.05401, 3.148591, 3.330686, 3.481854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.01, "volume": 72748927, "typical_volume": 86830998.65, "trend": 3.632427, "fair_value": 3.497039, "relative_strength": -24.186023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.662476, "energy": 69.327716, "activity_lines": [ 3.037333, 3.107916, 3.285196, 3.439697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.14, "volume": 55718392, "typical_volume": 84568234.35, "trend": 3.606093, "fair_value": 3.49241, "relative_strength": -18.930043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.063618, "energy": 52.830977, "activity_lines": [ 3.074, 3.100315, 3.256754, 3.407928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.12, "volume": 70366562, "typical_volume": 81783673.2, "trend": 3.579426, "fair_value": 3.486129, "relative_strength": -22.745553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.023189, "energy": 44.735466, "activity_lines": [ 3.093333, 3.093794, 3.230551, 3.376567 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }