{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfdcb7ef-fd3d-4418-a7e7-999704a74b43", "symbol": "200020", "name": "Shenzhen Zhongheng Huafa Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.676, "architecture_energy": 37.162, "architecture_maturity": 89.385, "architecture_confidence": 85.705, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.61, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 24.71, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 32.37, "downward_expansion": 63.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.303333, 2.258182, 2.348, 2.488258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.38, "trend_reference": 2.658667, "distance_from_trend": -0.104814, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.580449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.331405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.198653, "excess_performance": -0.206053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085531, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07768, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107662, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173314, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051688, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.198653, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.266777, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 367600, "relative_activity": 0.746633, "balance": 0.266777, "dry_up": 0.701517, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054299, "annualized_volatility": 0.31786, "from_high_reference": -0.272171, "from_low_reference": 0.127962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.658667, "fair_value_reference": 2.580449, "structural_low": 2.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.008627, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": 2.8e-05, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.265, "worst_return": -0.106667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016234, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.007272, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.26484, "worst_return": -0.102459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.087623, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.041397, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.238683, "worst_return": -0.128571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.041071, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.07182, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.170507, "worst_return": -0.141732, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010239, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.095745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035433, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015686, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091954, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05036, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.183019, "energy": 85.617729, "activity_lines": [ 2.190667, 2.234364, 2.464048, 2.598409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.19, "volume": 96000, "typical_volume": 700112.4, "trend": 2.722333, "fair_value": 2.587372, "relative_strength": -22.158998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.216229, "energy": 65.955352, "activity_lines": [ 2.184667, 2.213636, 2.421238, 2.562194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.18, "volume": 193300, "typical_volume": 677432.4, "trend": 2.696333, "fair_value": 2.583526, "relative_strength": -22.307054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.156554, "energy": 63.805139, "activity_lines": [ 2.18, 2.2, 2.380714, 2.527204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.39, "volume": 724650, "typical_volume": 703499.9, "trend": 2.677333, "fair_value": 2.581987, "relative_strength": -13.107023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.089855, "energy": 50.196587, "activity_lines": [ 2.250667, 2.229818, 2.363667, 2.507441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.38, "volume": 367600, "typical_volume": 492343.55, "trend": 2.658667, "fair_value": 2.580449, "relative_strength": -17.331405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.676422, "energy": 37.161771, "activity_lines": [ 2.303333, 2.258182, 2.348, 2.488258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }