{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfdfbdf3-d296-48cb-a214-88a689c586dd", "symbol": "WRNW", "name": "WisdomTree Renewable Energy UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.974, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.616, "architecture_energy": 70.765, "architecture_maturity": 12.439, "architecture_confidence": 71.49, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.02, "rotation_up": 16.2, "upward_expansion": 24.82, "deceleration": 43.14, "rotation_down": 74.5, "downward_expansion": 66.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.102333, 29.285591, 31.158976, 31.266408 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.684999, "trend_reference": 31.196083, "distance_from_trend": -0.080494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.925123, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.281857, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051422, "excess_performance": -0.102657, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080494, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031833, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.383866, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051422, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.357448, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5233, "relative_activity": 0.625392, "balance": 0.357448, "dry_up": 1.475551, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065593, "annualized_volatility": 0.266052, "from_high_reference": -0.231274, "from_low_reference": 0.456091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.196083, "fair_value_reference": 21.925123, "structural_low": 26.025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.017017, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090542, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.477474, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118807, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073265, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096174, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028413, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.605, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.640585, "energy": 74.769095, "activity_lines": [ 28.148167, 29.755863, 31.446928, 31.428408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.684999, "volume": 5233, "typical_volume": 8367.55, "trend": 31.196083, "fair_value": 21.925123, "relative_strength": -8.281857, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.616357, "energy": 70.764842, "activity_lines": [ 28.102333, 29.285591, 31.158976, 31.266408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }