{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfdfe355-1b46-424e-a995-791fc27582d5", "symbol": "002465", "name": "Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated Company", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.512, "architecture_energy": 81.007, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.225, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.18, "rotation_up": 9.25, "upward_expansion": 19.47, "deceleration": 37.45, "rotation_down": 75.21, "downward_expansion": 92.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.389333, 11.323818, 12.93326, 13.811678 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.85, "trend_reference": 15.18335, "distance_from_trend": -0.285401, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.082944, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.10204, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.04537, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.377276, "excess_performance": -0.384676, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.285401, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010374, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.10204, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.547328, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.260454, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.377276, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910623, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 285897494, "relative_activity": 0.792952, "balance": 0.910623, "dry_up": 0.981223, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166233, "annualized_volatility": 0.636092, "from_high_reference": -0.590855, "from_low_reference": 0.171706 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.18335, "fair_value_reference": 12.082944, "structural_low": 9.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.004198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014137, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.320308, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.129589, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.082506, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.321826, "worst_return": -0.131764, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.096568, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.026539, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.147658, "worst_return": -0.068784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.49, "volume": 301290750, "typical_volume": 379572451.35, "trend": 15.474583, "fair_value": 12.077878, "relative_strength": -33.865312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.125003, "energy": 85.812175, "activity_lines": [ 11.038, 12.277091, 13.658901, 14.454857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.0, "volume": 277200904, "typical_volume": 364152341.95, "trend": 15.344686, "fair_value": 12.077749, "relative_strength": -28.748799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.415798, "energy": 84.062271, "activity_lines": [ 10.495333, 11.664909, 13.241463, 14.101658 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.85, "volume": 285897494, "typical_volume": 360548323.85, "trend": 15.18335, "fair_value": 12.082944, "relative_strength": -26.04537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.511563, "energy": 81.006963, "activity_lines": [ 10.389333, 11.323818, 12.93326, 13.811678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }