{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfe4aff4-058b-4fb5-8bd6-7e4a5437b056", "symbol": "SKE", "name": "Skeena Resources Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.077, "architecture_energy": 7.918, "architecture_maturity": 23.533, "architecture_confidence": 43.222, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.77, "rotation_up": 26.3, "upward_expansion": 16.72, "deceleration": 34.14, "rotation_down": 30.86, "downward_expansion": 62.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.924, 39.372, 39.901762, 40.674301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.27, "trend_reference": 41.510667, "distance_from_trend": 0.090563, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.886987, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.396888, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.671092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.054262, "excess_performance": -0.066159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090563, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07777, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.396888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296011, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.156711, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146224, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054262, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468274, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1392700, "relative_activity": 0.99393, "balance": 0.468274, "dry_up": 1.242466, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101001, "annualized_volatility": 0.639464, "from_high_reference": -0.145849, "from_low_reference": 1.24665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.510667, "fair_value_reference": 18.886987, "structural_low": 34.41, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.006436, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.005289, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.239865, "worst_return": -0.296912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038647, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.002294, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.201509, "worst_return": -0.361493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.010811, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030456, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.904412, "worst_return": -0.273084, "sufficient": 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39.497819, 40.593572, 41.183763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.299999, "volume": 2629400, "typical_volume": 1591500.0, "trend": 40.873, "fair_value": 18.238654, "relative_strength": -5.046628, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.299836, "energy": 43.658213, "activity_lines": [ 38.072667, 38.634364, 39.984333, 40.830043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.220001, "volume": 1633300, "typical_volume": 1583815.0, "trend": 41.032667, "fair_value": 18.443782, "relative_strength": 1.923868, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.002205, "energy": 33.371817, "activity_lines": [ 37.931334, 38.451091, 39.732667, 40.658882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.189999, "volume": 1308400, "typical_volume": 1573145.0, "trend": 41.188333, "fair_value": 18.639231, "relative_strength": -0.998947, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.357669, "energy": 46.303076, "activity_lines": [ 37.548667, 38.16, 39.419191, 40.410968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.27, "volume": 1392700, "typical_volume": 1401205.0, "trend": 41.510667, "fair_value": 18.886987, "relative_strength": 15.671092, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.077046, "energy": 7.91772, "activity_lines": [ 39.924, 39.372, 39.901762, 40.674301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }