{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfe760a7-c017-4c54-90bd-b2c741fe75c1", "symbol": "AVLL3", "name": "Alphaville S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.635, "architecture_energy": 89.908, "architecture_maturity": 44.361, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 20.9, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 72.09, "downward_expansion": 99.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.719333, 11.453455, 13.928048, 15.480839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.5, "trend_reference": 17.379, "distance_from_trend": -0.395823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.948963, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.835807, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.312169, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.493976, "excess_performance": -0.436928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.395823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245485, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.835807, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133308, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.613122, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.493976, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.053027, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.053027, "dry_up": 0.241841, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127839, "annualized_volatility": 0.674175, "from_high_reference": -0.776596, "from_low_reference": 0.034483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.379, "fair_value_reference": 63.948963, "structural_low": 10.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.041096, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.041917, "regime_survival": 0.837838, "best_return": 0.851282, "worst_return": -0.410569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.216495, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.227755, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.947041, "worst_return": -0.621908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.267148, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.347786, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": -0.189988, "worst_return": -0.614091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -70.021185, "energy": 76.012335, "activity_lines": [ 13.136667, 14.528182, 16.933571, 18.009785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.08, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 4918.6, "trend": 19.159333, "fair_value": 67.404436, "relative_strength": -61.69573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.020079, "energy": 81.422434, "activity_lines": [ 12.65, 13.784545, 16.365238, 17.516667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.15, "volume": 3400, "typical_volume": 4843.6, "trend": 18.672667, "fair_value": 66.543904, "relative_strength": -66.082166, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.215003, "energy": 91.022995, "activity_lines": [ 11.748, 12.874909, 15.654381, 16.935419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.85, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 4846.2, "trend": 18.251, "fair_value": 65.648386, "relative_strength": -62.722843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.658863, "energy": 90.0038, "activity_lines": [ 11.302667, 12.303455, 15.055905, 16.430731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.84, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 4807.4, "trend": 17.812333, "fair_value": 64.766416, "relative_strength": -62.462816, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.950117, "energy": 89.015032, "activity_lines": [ 10.997333, 11.860182, 14.491714, 15.952602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4755.2, "trend": 17.379, "fair_value": 63.948963, "relative_strength": -61.312169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.634651, "energy": 89.907564, "activity_lines": [ 10.719333, 11.453455, 13.928048, 15.480839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }