{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfe975b0-8182-432b-998e-1ec6d835b308", "symbol": "SEME", "name": "iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.195, "architecture_energy": 29.224, "architecture_maturity": 72.999, "architecture_confidence": 95.39, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.33, "rotation_up": 18.8, "upward_expansion": 54.43, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 36.22, "downward_expansion": 20.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.108533, 17.925854, 17.573923, 16.320742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.233999, "trend_reference": 14.667417, "distance_from_trend": 0.174985, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.339634, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.066517, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 33.321553, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.56556, "excess_performance": 0.512249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174985, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.257603, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.066517, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.333216, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.411455, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.56556, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.605603, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276218, "relative_activity": 0.722724, "balance": 1.605603, "dry_up": 1.17819, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093625, "annualized_volatility": 0.409847, "from_high_reference": -0.171044, "from_low_reference": 1.470647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.667417, "fair_value_reference": 8.339634, "structural_low": 10.2426, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.059094, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.047934, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.308627, "worst_return": 0.009074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.084734, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.096684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.77117, "worst_return": 0.035385, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.213856, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.208213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.371165, "worst_return": 0.056547, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.251798, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.20007, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.458381, "worst_return": 0.045215, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049876, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034025, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00543, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059949, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.282756, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009008, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011113, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.490533, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.195791, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.225453, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05912, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.7755, "volume": 10739, "typical_volume": 43700.3, "trend": 4.613013, "fair_value": 4.285143, "relative_strength": 8.030757, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.893308, "energy": 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.655546, "energy": 36.601225, "activity_lines": [ 18.053866, 18.581018, 17.424939, 16.008669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.271999, "volume": 721877, "typical_volume": 374090.8, "trend": 14.4422, "fair_value": 8.26011, "relative_strength": 30.697577, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.308884, "energy": 29.411113, "activity_lines": [ 17.304399, 18.157018, 17.465912, 16.140626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.233999, "volume": 276218, "typical_volume": 382189.9, "trend": 14.667417, "fair_value": 8.339634, "relative_strength": 33.321553, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.195141, "energy": 29.22385, "activity_lines": [ 17.108533, 17.925854, 17.573923, 16.320742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }