{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfea90a0-c7e9-4c70-8895-43deeb4a14c9", "symbol": "NSKOG", "name": "Norske Skog ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.439, "architecture_energy": 21.87, "architecture_maturity": 73.026, "architecture_confidence": 92.34, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.0, "rotation_up": 20.87, "upward_expansion": 43.77, "deceleration": 84.74, "rotation_down": 40.1, "downward_expansion": 33.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.853333, 40.759091, 41.981666, 40.279075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 43.299999, "trend_reference": 36.304333, "distance_from_trend": 0.192695, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.046156, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394698, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 38.789865, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.076739, "excess_performance": 0.951745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.192695, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.299771, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.394698, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.387899, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.076739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.90752, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1791573, "relative_activity": 1.408863, "balance": 0.90752, "dry_up": 1.417384, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091402, "annualized_volatility": 0.690236, "from_high_reference": -0.133133, "from_low_reference": 2.066572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.304333, "fair_value_reference": 31.046156, "structural_low": 20.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045388, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.040208, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293488, "worst_return": -0.067152, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023518, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.107206, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.384115, "worst_return": -0.374805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.282783, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.283306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.416667, "worst_return": -0.383134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.219269, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.20442, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070363, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139896, 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"typical_volume": 1404688.3, "trend": 33.515333, "fair_value": 31.186349, "relative_strength": 44.456164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.833036, "energy": 35.145589, "activity_lines": [ 43.323334, 43.814545, 42.879285, 39.204064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.700001, "volume": 3332010, "typical_volume": 1381016.3, "trend": 34.102667, "fair_value": 31.140695, "relative_strength": 17.461158, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.822943, "energy": 16.961107, "activity_lines": [ 40.220001, 42.100909, 42.318571, 39.280494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.25, "volume": 1063416, "typical_volume": 1321643.0, "trend": 34.746333, "fair_value": 31.086684, "relative_strength": 19.16778, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.631041, "energy": 25.930395, "activity_lines": [ 38.320001, 40.866364, 41.883095, 39.419032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.299999, "volume": 1022634, "typical_volume": 1236368.2, "trend": 35.523, "fair_value": 31.059517, "relative_strength": 30.810903, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.681823, "energy": 24.525011, "activity_lines": [ 38.493333, 40.501818, 41.804285, 39.777333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.299999, "volume": 1791573, "typical_volume": 1271644.3, "trend": 36.304333, "fair_value": 31.046156, "relative_strength": 38.789865, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.439398, "energy": 21.869996, "activity_lines": [ 39.853333, 40.759091, 41.981666, 40.279075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }