{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cfeb59e9-6818-4001-8c36-cae2ee306bdf", "symbol": "MNTC", "name": "Mentice AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.135, "architecture_energy": 47.486, "architecture_maturity": 21.244, "architecture_confidence": 72.748, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.05, "rotation_up": 62.97, "upward_expansion": 78.63, "deceleration": 53.21, "rotation_down": 9.55, "downward_expansion": 7.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.513333, 13.983636, 13.820238, 13.735914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.55, "trend_reference": 13.655, "distance_from_trend": 0.065544, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.565903, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.382583, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.957638, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.069853, "excess_performance": 0.008359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065544, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003061, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.382583, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.121331, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019576, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130231, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069853, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.548641, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44210, "relative_activity": 0.721804, "balance": 3.548641, "dry_up": 0.941365, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085911, "annualized_volatility": 0.503257, "from_high_reference": -0.191667, "from_low_reference": 0.711765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.655, "fair_value_reference": 23.565903, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046883, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.527778, "worst_return": -0.176923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.11635, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.128104, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.579861, "worst_return": -0.307813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112661, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.176746, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.025463, "worst_return": -0.498869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.548817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.05, "volume": 7792, "typical_volume": 55309.7, "trend": 13.516667, "fair_value": 24.491865, "relative_strength": -12.38828, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.799169, "energy": 37.40177, "activity_lines": [ 13.01, 13.442727, 13.492381, 13.514946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.3, "volume": 5932, "typical_volume": 55289.05, "trend": 13.51, "fair_value": 24.316224, "relative_strength": -8.258132, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.587274, "energy": 41.690371, "activity_lines": [ 13.066667, 13.390909, 13.468333, 13.500968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.5, "volume": 13288, "typical_volume": 52936.95, "trend": 13.54, "fair_value": 24.122634, "relative_strength": -5.398339, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.262649, "energy": 23.451473, "activity_lines": [ 13.246667, 13.364545, 13.459048, 13.500323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.95, "volume": 122250, "typical_volume": 58477.65, "trend": 13.603333, "fair_value": 23.919749, "relative_strength": 3.415152, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.946507, "energy": 15.105854, "activity_lines": [ 13.85, 13.59, 13.596667, 13.59129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.95, "volume": 50884, "typical_volume": 60477.4, "trend": 13.655, "fair_value": 23.730326, "relative_strength": 2.284001, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.85916, "energy": 38.863906, "activity_lines": [ 14.313333, 13.817273, 13.729762, 13.678172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.55, "volume": 44210, "typical_volume": 61249.35, "trend": 13.655, "fair_value": 23.565903, "relative_strength": -1.957638, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.135138, "energy": 47.485503, "activity_lines": [ 14.513333, 13.983636, 13.820238, 13.735914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }