{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cff53adf-d8b8-4fe4-9504-7537662c52c7", "symbol": "SCTB", "name": "IVZ S&P 500 CTB Acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.487, "architecture_energy": 75.445, "architecture_maturity": 62.377, "architecture_confidence": 78.589, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.2, "rotation_up": 62.09, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.57, "rotation_down": 29.2, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.041867, 5.012882, 4.928107, 4.812228 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.166, "trend_reference": 4.681883, "distance_from_trend": 0.103402, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.446344, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161853, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.468717, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.168778, "excess_performance": 0.085895, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103402, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03234, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161853, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06992, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014687, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027622, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.168778, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013103, "annualized_volatility": 0.108747, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.219835 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.681883, "fair_value_reference": 4.446344, "structural_low": 4.235, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, 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"median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 4.68, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 4.6145, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "close": 4.6305, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, 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null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 4.964, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.9795, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.015, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.9725, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.9595, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.166, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 151.95, "trend": 4.681883, "fair_value": 4.446344, "relative_strength": 1.468717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.487281, "energy": 75.445125, "activity_lines": [ 5.041867, 5.012882, 4.928107, 4.812228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }