{ "ticker": { "uuid": "cffb6d22-545f-48f5-a60e-95cb00047753", "symbol": "NDAQ", "name": "Nasdaq Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.449, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.831, "architecture_energy": 60.968, "architecture_maturity": 13.734, "architecture_confidence": 62.669, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.87, "rotation_up": 74.0, "upward_expansion": 86.93, "deceleration": 44.33, "rotation_down": 8.67, "downward_expansion": 11.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.156, 89.990672, 89.06489, 88.343511 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 94.59, "trend_reference": 88.264171, "distance_from_trend": 0.071669, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 74.223233, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274399, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.578182, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122457, "excess_performance": -0.064996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071669, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013831, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025883, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075782, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096694, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122457, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.718808, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16591229, "relative_activity": 0.931583, "balance": 1.718808, "dry_up": 1.109306, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062825, "annualized_volatility": 0.306307, "from_high_reference": -0.064518, "from_low_reference": 0.235663 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 88.264171, "fair_value_reference": 74.223233, "structural_low": 76.55, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.020974, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.007414, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.080798, "worst_return": -0.149644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058156, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.020066, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.17199, "worst_return": -0.106926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029544, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.158383, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.290161, "worst_return": -0.054988, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 88.08, "volume": 18697523, "typical_volume": 17973220.2, "trend": 88.748508, "fair_value": 73.075521, "relative_strength": -15.689184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.31976, "energy": 39.514849, "activity_lines": [ 84.545333, 85.938748, 86.822161, 87.161159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 91.64, "volume": 24528091, "typical_volume": 17859662.95, "trend": 88.645474, "fair_value": 73.351023, "relative_strength": -8.154765, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.290221, "energy": 9.275515, "activity_lines": [ 86.924, 86.75084, 87.278824, 87.347707 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 92.09, "volume": 18896384, "typical_volume": 17776840.45, "trend": 88.425318, "fair_value": 73.630762, "relative_strength": -5.810152, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.473824, "energy": 19.009556, "activity_lines": [ 89.275333, 87.589501, 87.75626, 87.569934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.19, "volume": 19010044, "typical_volume": 17776082.3, "trend": 88.364238, "fair_value": 73.93036, "relative_strength": -3.755977, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.940244, "energy": 33.203123, "activity_lines": [ 91.67, 88.785504, 88.413489, 87.941849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 94.59, "volume": 16591229, "typical_volume": 17809722.6, "trend": 88.264171, "fair_value": 74.223233, "relative_strength": -7.578182, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.831112, "energy": 60.967859, "activity_lines": [ 93.156, 89.990672, 89.06489, 88.343511 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }