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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.019, "architecture_energy": 54.788, "architecture_maturity": 44.883, "architecture_confidence": 76.652, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.5, "rotation_up": 60.35, "upward_expansion": 86.58, "deceleration": 53.3, "rotation_down": 25.28, "downward_expansion": 8.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.774603, 119.54026, 115.682314, 110.516437 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 122.0, "trend_reference": 104.112699, "distance_from_trend": 0.171807, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.898364, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372354, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.451105, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.307143, "excess_performance": -0.134229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.171807, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060177, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372354, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021033, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184511, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095507, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.307143, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.967873, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196031, "relative_activity": 1.497592, "balance": 1.967873, "dry_up": 0.900048, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053459, "annualized_volatility": 0.216513, "from_high_reference": -0.040449, "from_low_reference": 0.465675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.112699, "fair_value_reference": 88.898364, "structural_low": 83.238096, 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"direction": 65.621986, "energy": 55.721576, "activity_lines": [ 119.396826, 117.783551, 113.195012, 108.109576 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 121.0, "volume": 74928, "typical_volume": 131315.65, "trend": 103.220636, "fair_value": 88.391418, "relative_strength": -17.136374, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.529213, "energy": 51.768476, "activity_lines": [ 120.111111, 118.65801, 114.469842, 109.304865 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 122.0, "volume": 196031, "typical_volume": 130897.45, "trend": 104.112699, "fair_value": 88.898364, "relative_strength": -18.451105, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.019029, "energy": 54.788442, "activity_lines": [ 120.774603, 119.54026, 115.682314, 110.516437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }